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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 9 (gombe) 
Message-ID: <20220309132846.264E91C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 9 Mar 2022 13:28:46 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 091239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/9/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 45.4 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/10 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2022/03/10 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/11 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2022/03/11 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/12 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/12 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/13 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/03/14 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, GOMBE HAS KEPT A CURVED BAND PATTERN
WRAPPING MORE AND MORE AROUND A VERY COMPACT CENTER, WHILE THE OUTER
PART OF THE CURVED BAND HAS SLIGHTLY DETACHED ITSELF FROM THE CENTRAL
PART ON THE LAST IMAGES. BASED ON CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE
CURVED BAND WRAPS ABOUT 1.0 ON A LOG10 SPIRAL, GIVING A DT OF 3.5.
CONVECTION SEEMS TO BECOME MORE AND MORE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE
CENTER, SIGN OF A PROBABLE TRANSITION TO A CDO PATTERN. AN 1021Z
AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS EVEN MORE ENHANCED WRAPPING OF
CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND A TIGHT CENTER, WHICH COULD INDICATE THAT
REAL INTENSITY IS HIGHER THAN 3.5 (MORE MATURE STAGE OF THE CURVED
BAND PATTERN). IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER OBJECTIVE DATA, THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 50 KT, CONTINUING THE INTENSIFICATION
STARTED THIS MORNING, BUT WITH A CONSEQUENT MARGIN OF ERROR ON THIS
ESTIMATE.

IN THE SHORT TERM AND UNTIL FRIDAY INCLUDED, GOMBE'S TRACK IS MAINLY
DRIVEN BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT, HENCE AN
EXPECTED LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE ON FRIDAY ON THE
PROVINCE OF NAMPULA. OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
RECEDING AND A SMALL CUT-OFF SLIDING TOWARDS THE SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WHILE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST OF THE SYSTEM, GOMBE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN ON SATURDAY AND THEN CURVE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, EXITING
BACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY MONDAY. THE COMPLEX AND
CONFLICTING STEERING INFLUENCES BRING CONSEQUENT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE TIMING OF GOMBE'S SOUTHEASTWARD TURN INLAND MOZAMBIQUE. THE
RSMC'S TRACK IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO BETWEEN MAIN AVAILABLE
MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE BENEFITS FROM VERY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR FURTHER FRANK
INTENSIFICATION DURING ITS CROSSING OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
IMPORTANT OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT (SST AT 29-30C), VERY GOOD WESTWARD
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MOIST TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AROUND 15 KT SHOULD NOT OFFSET THE
SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION TOO MUCH, AS IT IS MOVING IN A SIMILAR
DIRECTION. MOREOVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CURRENT CORE COULD FAVOR
HIGH REACTIVITY AND COULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WHICH IS
EXPLICITLY FORECAST, MAKING GOMBE REACH THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE. THIS FORECAST
OF PEAK INTENSITY IS, HOWEVER, SUBJECT TO SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY. CLASSICAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE SYSTEM
IS OVERLAND. WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA NEXT MONDAY,
REINTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE QUITE SLOW AT FIRST, DUE TO A RATHER
LARGE AND POORLY CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GOMBE SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY DECREASE AS SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY.
- COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE : SOME HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL THURSDAY.
- MOZAMBIQUE : LANDFALL OF A DANGEROUS CYCLONE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA (TIMING AND LOCATION STILL
UNCERTAIN). VIOLENT WIND GUSTS THAT COULD REACH AROUND 200 KM/H,
INTENSE RAINFALL (200-400 MM NEAR THE IMPACT AREA) AND A DANGEROUS
SEA STATE (HIGH WAVES AND A STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 1M OR MORE THAT
COULD EXTEND QUITE FAR SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE'S CENTER). LOCAL
POPULATIONS ARE INVITED TO START PREPARING FOR THE IMPACT OF A
POTENTIALLY INTENSE CYCLONE AND TO FOLLOW LOCAL AUTHORITIES
INSTRUCTIONS.=

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