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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 9 (gombe) 
Message-ID: <20220310073834.C58C81C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2022 07:38:34 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 100647
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/9/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 42.8 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/10 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2022/03/11 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 95 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/11 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95

48H: 2022/03/12 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/13 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/14 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

120H: 2022/03/15 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

SINCE 00Z, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A CENTER
MORE AND MORE EMBEDDED IN THE CDO. ON THE LAST IMAGES, AN EYE SEEMS
TO FORM, WHILE THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS INTENSE NEAR THE CENTER.
THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS NEAR 4.0/4.5 AND THE
0301Z SMAP PASS, THE INTENSITY IS FIXED AT 65KT. THIS DEEPENING SEEMS
COHERENT WITH THE DECREASE IN SHEAR OBSERVED BY THE CIMSS (ONLY 10KT
AT 03Z).

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. GOMBE'S TRACK IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT, HENCE A PLANNED LANDING ON THE EAST COAST
OF MOZAMBIQUE LATE NEXT NIGHT BETWEEN ANGOCHE AND NACALA. DURING THE
WEEKEND, FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE
INCURSION OF A SMALL CUT-OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
THEN TO THE EAST, GOMBE SHOULD SLOW ITS COURSE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
BEND ITS TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SUNDAY, LEADING TO ITS EMERGENCE
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, MONDAY. THE COMPLEX AND CONFLICTING
STEERING FLOWS BRING A SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
GOMBE'S TURN OVERLAND. THE RSMC TRACK IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO
BETWEEN THE MAIN AVAILABLE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE BENEFITS FROM ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF A STEADY OR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
UP TO THE LANDING: IMPORTANT OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT (SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 29-30C), VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE AND A WEAKENING SHEAR. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES AN
INTENSIFICATION UP TO THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE AT LANDFALL.
HOWEVER, THE INNER CORE SMALL SIZE MAKES THE FORECAST OF THE EXTENT
OF INTENSIFICATION STILL UNCERTAIN.
A CLASSICAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND. WHEN
THE SYSTEM EA MERGES OUT ON THE SEA NEXT MONDAY, THE PROBABILITIES
FOR A RE-INTENSIFICATION ARE DOWN. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AN UPPER
TO MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, IT MAY EXPERIENCE
INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN
MID-TROPOSPHERE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE :  RESIDUAL PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE
WITH HEAVY THUNDERY RAIN TODAY.

- MOZAMBIQUE : A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
LAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NAMPULA PROVINCE, PROBABLY BETWEEN
NACALA AT NORTH AND ANGOCHE AT SOUTH. CONDITIONS BEGAN TO DETERIORATE
THIS MORNING BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT AND RAPID DETERIORATION LATE TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
WINDS: GOMBE IS A COMPACT CYCLONE, THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL ONLY
CONCERN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE (50KM AROUND) BUT
COULD EXCEED 200KM/H IN GUSTS.
RAINS: ACCUMULATIONS OF 100-150 MM ARE EXPECTED IN 24 HOURS ALONG THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK UP TO TO THE EMERGENCE OVER THE SEA, WITH LOCALLY UP
TO 200 TO 300MM IN 24 HOURS NORTH OF THE LANDING AREA. OVER THE WHOLE
EPISODE ACCULATIONS EXCEEDING 400MM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NAMPULA
PROVINCE.
SEA: WAVES OF UP TO 6M ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF NAMPULA PROVINCE'S
COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. A SURGE OF ABOUT 1M50 TO 2M IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE TRACK.

-MALAWI : SOUTHERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINS
NEAR GOMBE RESIDUAL CENTER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 100MM ARE POSSIBLE.

INHABITANTS OF THE AREA ARE ADVISED TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR THE
IMPACT OF A POTENTIALLY INTENSE CYCLONE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AND TO
FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE AUTHORITIES=

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