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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220310102535.E8CC41C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2022 10:25:35 +0000
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804 
AWIO20 FMEE 101022

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/03/10 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO24 0017/9 and WTIO30 0018/9 issued at 06utc on the tropical cyclone GOMBE.

Next warnings at 12utc.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


Trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present west of 75oE and feeds a Monsoon trough (MT) with an undulating axis between 8S and 11S. The convective activity is strong around tropical cyclone GOMBE. It is moderate to strong near the northeast coast of Madagascar in the area of slowing of the monsoon flow and more modestly in the ondulation of the trade winds around 21oS/66oE.

Tropical Cyclone GOMBE :

Position at 09UTC: 15.9S/42.4E

Displacement : South-West at 7kt

Maximum winds averaged over 10 minutes : 70kt

Minimum central pressure : 975hPa
For more information on this system, please refer to the WTOI24 and WTOI30 bulletins produced at 12UTC and the following ones

North of the Mascarene Islands:

A large area of low pressure remains east of Madagascar, north of the Mascarene Islands, corresponding to the axis of the MT. With the strengthening of the polar trade wind and the persistence of a monsoon flow, the low pressure feeding is maintained and could maintain a weak circulation within the convective activity currently present. As the environmental conditions are maintained or even improving, some runs of the ensemble models are starting to suggest an intensification from Monday.

There is therefore a low risk of a moderate tropical storm forming early next week over the northern Mascarene Islands.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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