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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 9 (gombe) 
Message-ID: <20220310191701.5DA351C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2022 19:17:01 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 101835
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/9/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 41.4 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 971 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/11 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 35
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/11 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 100 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/12 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/13 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/13 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/14 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 140

120H: 2022/03/15 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, GOMBE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE, WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYING ENHANCED CONVECTION
WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS (-85/-90C) AND A MORE SYMMETRICAL CDO
STRUCTURE. A 1534Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A BETTER CONSOLIDATED INNER CORE
THAN PREVIOUSLY. A PARTIAL 1511Z SMAP PASS SHOWS WINDS UP TO 65KT,
BUT THE SYSTEM'S RECENT STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT SUGGESTS IT IS
CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING. WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS BETWEEN 4.5
AND 5.0, THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 75KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. GOMBE'S TRACK IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT, HENCE A PLANNED LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST
OF MOZAMBIQUE TONIGHT JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK BETWEEN ANGOCHE AND ISLE
OF MOZAMBIQUE. DURING THE WEEKEND, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RECEDES,
THE INCURSION OF A CUT-OFF TO THE SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE AND THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THEN TO
THE EAST, GOMBE SHOULD SLOW ITS MOVEMENT ON SATURDAY AND THEN TURN
SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD MAKE IT MOVE BACK INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FROM MONDAY. THE COMPLEX AND CONFLICTING STEERING
FLOWS BRING SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF GOMBE'S TURN
OVERLAND. THE RSMC'S TRACK IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE BENEFITS FROM CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STEADY OR RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP
TO THE LANDFALL : IMPORTANT OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT (SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 29-30C), VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE AND WEAKENING SHEAR. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES AN
INTENSIFICATION UP TO INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE AT LANDFALL. THE
INNER CORE'S SMALL SIZE INCREASES UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS
INTENSIFICATION. A CLASSICAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE SYSTEM IS
OVER LAND. WHEN THE SYSTEM EMERGES BACK OUT TO SEA NEXT MONDAY,
RE-INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE VERY SLOW. AN UPPER TO MID-TROPOSPHERE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY INDUCE INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MOZAMBIQUE : A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EARLY MORNING IN THE NAMPULA
PROVINCE, PROBABLY BETWEEN ISLE OF MOZAMBIQUE AND ANGOCHE. A
SIGNIFICANT AND RAPID DETERIORATION IS IMMINENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS: GOMBE IS A COMPACT CYCLONE, THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL CONCERN
ONLY THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDFALL ZONE (50KM AROUND) BUT
GUSTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 200 KM/H.
RAINFALL: ACCUMULATIONS OF 100-200 MM ARE EXPECTED IN 24H ALONG THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK UNTIL ITS EXIT BACK TO SEA, AND LOCALLY 200 TO 300 MM
IN 24H TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA. OVER THE WHOLE
EPISODE, ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 400MM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE PROVINCE
OF NAMPULA.
SEA: WAVES OF UP TO 6 TO 10 METERS ARE LIKELY ON SOME PARTS OF THE
PROVINCE'S COASTS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE UP TO
1 TO 2 METERS IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE TRACK.
-MALAWI : SOUTHERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY
RAINFALL AROUND THE STORM'S REMNANT CENTER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 100 MM ARE POSSIBLE.
-PEOPLE IN THE AREA ARE ADVISED TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR THE
IMPACT OF AN INTENSE CYCLONE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AND TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF AUTHORITIES.=

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