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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 9 (gombe) 
Message-ID: <20220311013510.C0CC61C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2022 01:35:10 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 110039
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/9/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 40.7 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/11 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 130 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/12 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/12 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/13 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/13 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/14 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/15 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 100

120H: 2022/03/16 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

IN THE RECENT HOURS, GOMBE'S CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED FROM A CDO
PATTERN TO AN EYE PATTERN WHICH APPEARED AROUND 21Z. DURING THIS
PERIOD, THE CYCLONE UNDERWENT A TEMPORARY NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATED
SHIFT, BRINGING IT A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON AN EYE PATTERN AVERAGED
OVER THE 3 LAST HOURS GIVES A DT OF 5.5. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS
THUS ESTIMATED TO BE 90KT AT 00Z, MAKING GOMBE REACH THE LOWEST STAGE
OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS FOLLOWING A RAPID INTENSIFICATION
PHASE WHICH OCCURRED JUST BEFORE A MAJOR LANDFALL WHICH IS NOW TAKING
PLACE AROUND 0030Z (02.30 AM, MOZAMBIQUE TIME) OVER THE PROVINCE OF
NAMPULA, ABOUT 50 KM SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF MOZAMBIQUE AND 100 KM
NORTH-EAST OF ANGOCHE, NEAR TOWNS OF MOGINCUAL OR TERRENE.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. GOMBE'S TRACK IS STILL DRIVEN BY THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT THIS FRIDAY, MAKING THE CYCLONE TRACK
INLAND  OVER MOZAMBIQUE. DURING THE WEEKEND, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
RECEDES, A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE AND
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST OF THE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS, GOMBE SHOULD SLOW ITS MOVEMENT ON SATURDAY AND THEN TURN
SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT MOVE BACK INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. THERE IS HIGH DISPERSION
AMONG  AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ABOUT THE TIMING OF GOMBE'S SOUTHEASTWARD
TURN OVERLAND AND ITS TRACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER THAT.
THE RSMC'S FORECAST TRACK IS THUS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WHILE LEAVING THE WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
WATERS, GOMBE WILL EXPERIENCE CLASSIC FAST WEAKENING THIS FRIDAY AS
IT TRACKS OVER LAND. WHEN THE SYSTEM EMERGES BACK OUT TO SEA NEXT
MONDAY, THERE IS AN IMPORTANT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH IT COULD
RE-INTENSIFY. A TOO BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR DRIVING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION COULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS. THE ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTS VERY LIMITED INTENSITY
(WEAK TROPICAL STORM) WHEREAS THE GFS MODEL PERSISTS WITH A MORE
FRANK INTENSIFICATION. THE RSMC FORECAST FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
-MOZAMBIQUE: THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
NAMPULA PROVINCE, WITH EXTREMELY DISTURBED AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PEOPLE IN THE AREA ARE ADVISED TO TAKE SHELTER AND FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF AUTHORITIES.
WINDS: GOMBE IS A COMPACT CYCLONE, THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE ONLY IN
THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDFALL AREA (50KM AROUND) BUT COULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED 200 KM/H.
RAINFALL: 24-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS OF 100-200 MM ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK UNTIL IT EXITS BACK TO SEA, AND LOCALLY 200-300 MM TO
THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA. OVER THE WHOLE EPISODE,
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 400MM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE PROVINCE OF
NAMPULA.
SEA : WAVES OF 6 TO 10 METERS ARE LIKELY ON SOME PARTS OF THE
PROVINCE'S COASTS, WITH A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 METERS SOUTH OF THE
TRAJECTORY.
-MALAWI: SOUTHERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS GOMBE'S REMNANT CENTER TRACKS NEARBY ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS EXCEEDING 100 MM.=

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