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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220311035657.45ED31C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2022 03:56:57 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 110356
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Mar 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong cold front will move=20
through the western Gulf of Mexico and southern Mexico Saturday
afternoon into Sunday. The tightening pressure gradient and=20
drier air following the front will combine to provide strong
gale-force gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting
Saturday afternoon and diminishing Sunday evening. These gales=20
could reach near 45 kt with possible gusts to storm force Sat=20
evening. Peak seas will build between 16 to 20 ft offshore. The=20
gale-force gape winds will generate a large plume of swell in=20
excess of 8 ft extending as far as 500 nm downstream from the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week. For further details, please
see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center, at this website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!qZmOHKEDDB5FyesXxLZkLaFE7_jenQzOfJDX-Pi9S9EEJtOCOXpZ8aWvr4yHZgbAn=
qkEsYnB$ .


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 01N82W, then resumes
from 03N90W to 03N104W to 04N115W. The ITCZ extends from=20
04N115W to 05N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate=20=20
convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 90W and 112W, and=20
along the ITCZ from 03N to 08N and W of 124W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A broadening surface ridge continues across the area from high=20
pressure across the NE Pacific south and southeastward through=20
30N129W to near 22N122W. The associated pressure gradient across
the Baja offshore waters is supporting mainly gentle Nly winds=20
with seas of 3 to 6 ft. A cold front is just N of the area across
southern California and has begun to freshen winds across the
Baja Norte waters to around 15 kt, and seas of 5-8 ft in building
NW swell. Winds have become southerly across most of the Gulf of
California in advance of the cold front, and S to SW near 15 kt
across far N portions, where seas are 3-4 ft.

Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the Baja Sur and Gulf
of California into the evening hours before the cold front sweeps
southward across the Gulf and the Baja Peninsula. NW to N winds
will briefly freshen across the Baja Norte waters late this
afternoon through tonight and then across the remaining Baja
offshore waters tonight into Fri morning then gradually veer N to
NE. New northerly swell behind the front will raise seas to 9 ft
offshore Baja California Norte this evening into Fri. Strong
winds will follow the front down the Gulf of California beginning
tonight across far N portions and spread S Sat morning before=20
diminishing Sat afternoon through Sun. Sea inside the Gulf will=20
peak near 8 to 9 ft across N portions Fri morning and then across
central portions early Sat.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A weak pressure gradient across the area is leading to mainly=20
gentle winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Moderate E winds are pulsing
in the Gulf of Papagayo.

Gap winds across the Papagayo region will diminish tonight. Mainly
gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Fresh to locally strong gap
winds will pulse over the Papagayo region beginning again Sun, as
high pressure behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front moves N of the
area. Moderate to fresh winds are also likely to develop Sun=20
night in the Gulf of Panama.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1029 mb has settled N of the area near 37N132W.
A broad ridge extends southward between 105W and to 147W. The=20
pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting moderate to=20
fresh NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 18N, to the W of 120W,=20
with gentle to moderate N to NE winds to the N. Seas are 8 to 10=20
ft in mixed swell across the trade wind zone, and 5 to 8 ft=20
elsewhere W of 118W. To the S of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate E=20
to SE winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

The pressure gradient S of 25N and W of 125W will support fresh=20
trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft for the remainder of the week.=20
Winds and seas will diminish this weekend as a cold front=20
approaches far NW portions of the discussion area. Active=20
convection is expected over the weekend N of the ITCZ and W of=20
130W.=20

$$
Torres


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