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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 9 (gombe) 
Message-ID: <20220311073641.D66EB1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2022 07:36:41 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 110656
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/9/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 40.1 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/11 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/12 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/13 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/13 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/14 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/15 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 85

120H: 2022/03/16 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
AFTER ITS LANDING OVER NAMPULA PROVINCE (MOZAMBIQUE), GOMBE'S CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DECAYED QUITE A BIT WITH RAPIDLY WARMING TOPS AND A
SLIGHTLY ENLARGED ITS STRUCTURE. THE 0219 UTC AND 0106 UTC SSMIS
SWATHS SUGGEST A FAIRLY ROBUST INTERNAL STRUCTURE EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN EYE WALL GIVEN THE 85GHZ MICROWAVE, SHOWING SEVERE EROSION
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE LAND. THE MAIN CONVECTION IS OFF-SHORE
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

GOMBE'S TRACK REMAINS DRIVEN IN THE SHORT TERM BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION, WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY, MOVING THE
CYCLONE TRACK INLAND OVER MOZAMBIQUE. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS A RESULT
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVING WESTWARD, THE INCURSION OF A CUT-OFF
SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN TO THE EAST, GOMBE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN ON SATURDAY AND THEN CURVE ITS TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SUNDAY, LEADING IT TO EXIT THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL A LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE
TRACK ONCE THE SYSTEM IS BACK AT SEA. THE RSMC TRACK IS BASED ON A
MEDIAN SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES INLAND OVER MOZAMBIQUE. AT THE TIME OF THE EXIT NEXT MONDAY,
THE MODELS ARE STRONGLY DISPERSED CONCERNING THE RE-INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM. A LARGE CIRCULATION AND THE PRESENCE OF A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR BRINGING DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE ALOFT AT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM, COULD BE LIMITING FACTORS. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL SUGGESTS A LOW INTENSITY. ON THE OTHER HAND, GFS
PERSISTS IN MODELLING A MORE PRONOUNCED INTENSIFICATION. THE PRESENT
FORECAST FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
-MOZAMBIQUE: EXTREMELY DISTURBED AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY UNDERWAY OVER NAMPULA PROVINCE AND NORTHERN ZAMBEZIA
PROVINCE, NOT FAR FROM THE GOMBE LANDING ZONE. PEOPLE IN THE AREA ARE
ADVISED TO REMAIN UNDER SHELTER AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
AUTHORITIES.

WINDS: GOMBE IS STILL COMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL BE TODAY MAINLY IN NAMPULA PROVINCE BETWEEN 90 AND 100 KM/H WITH
PEAKS AROUND 150 KM/H. THE GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS GOMBE MOVES
INLAND.

RAINS: 24 HOURS ACCUMULATIONS OF 100-200 MM ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK UNTIL IT EXITS THE SEA, AND LOCALLY 24 HOURS
ACCUMULATIONS OF 200 TO 250 MM IN IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE LANDING
ZONE. OVER THE WHOLE EPISODE, LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 400
MM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZIA.

SEA: WAVES OF 6 TO 12 METERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY ON SOME COASTAL
PARTS OF NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA PROVINCES, WITH A STORM SURGE OF ABOUT
1 TO 2 METERS SOUTH OF THE LANDING AREA.

-MALAWI: SOUTHEASTERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY
RAINS AROUND THE GOMBE'S REMNANT CENTER MAINLY UNTIL SATURDAY, WITH
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 70 AND 100 MM DURING THE EPISODE.=

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