Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220311115244.E86451C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2022 11:52:44 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1646999569-112669-13431"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1646999569-112669-13431
Content-Type: text/plain


410 
AWIO20 FMEE 111049

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/03/11 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO24 0021/9 and WTIO30 0022/9 issued at 06utc on the low over land GOMBE.

Next warnings at 12utc.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present west of 70oE and feeds a Monsoon trough (TM) with an undulating axis between 8S and 11S. The convective activity is strong around the low over land GOMBE. It is moderate near the northeast coast of Madagascar in the area of slowing of the monsoon flow.

The depression on land Gombe, is now evolving on the lands of Mozambique by filling slowly. However, it brings a lot of rain and wind in the interior of NAMPULA and ZAMBEZIA Province.

Low over land GOMBE :

Position at 09 UTC : 15.27S / 39.93E

Movement : WNW 5kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 min : 30kt

Estimated central pressure: 1001 hPa
For more information on this system, please refer to the WTOI24 and WTOI30 bulletins produced at 12utc and following.

North of the Mascarene Islands :

A large area of low pressure remains east of Madagascar, north of the Mascarene Islands, corresponding to the axis of the monsoon trough. With the strengthening of the polar trade wind and the persistence of a monsoon flow, the low pressure feeding is maintained and could maintain a weak circulation within the convective activity currently present. The environmental conditions are still present but the ensemble models do not suggest any intensification in the next 5 days. The risk of a tropical storm is therefore revised downwards.

There is no risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm over the basin in the next 5 days.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

------------=_1646999569-112669-13431
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1646999569-112669-13431--