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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 9 (gombe) 
Message-ID: <20220311132519.3E7151C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2022 13:25:19 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 111255
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/9/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 39.1 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/12 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/03/12 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/13 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/13 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/14 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

72H: 2022/03/14 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/15 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100

120H: 2022/03/16 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, GOMBE HAS CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD TRACK WHILE
WEAKENING PROGRESSIVELY. THE CONVECTION HAS DISAPPEARED WITHIN THE
SYSTEM AND REMAINS LOCALIZED MAINLY OFF-SHORE. THE 1000 UTC NAMPULA'S
OBSERVATIONS HAVE PERMITTED NOT ONLY TO RECALIBRATE THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE ASSEMENT OF GOMBE BUT ALSO TO ESTIMATE MORE PRECISELY THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE 0630 UTC ASCATS B AND C SWATHS HAVE ALSO
HELPED TO POINT OUT THE RESIDUAL GALE FORCE WIND IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT.

THE TRACK REMAINS DRIVEN IN THE SHORT TERM BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION, WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY, MOVING THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FAR INLAND. DURING THE WEEKEND, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
SLIDE PROGRESSIVELY WESTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH POTENTIAL
FIELD SOUTH OF GOMBE. IN ADDITION TO THIS, A CUT-OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CHANNEL WILL BE INCURSED AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENED. THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN
SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE COURSE OF GOMBE FROM SATURDAY AND THEN TURNS ITS
TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY, LEADING IT TO EMERGE IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMPLEX INTERACTION IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS UNDERSTOOD DIFFERENTLY
ACCORDING TO THE NUMERICAL OUTPUTS. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS THEREFORE ALSO REFLECTED IN THE TRAJECTORY FORECAST,
WHICH TAKES DIFFERENT STEERING FLOWS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOGICALLY, THERE IS STILL A WIDE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINIST MODELS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-EAST THIS WEEKEND AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK ONCE THE
SYSTEM IS BACK AT SEA. THE RSMC TRACK IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND ON MOZAMBIQUE. AT THE TIME OF THE EXIT NEXT MONDAY, THE MODELS
ARE STRONGLY DISPERSED CONCERNING THE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. AN LARGE CIRCULATION AND THE PRESENCE OF A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR ADVECTING DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM, COULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS. THE EUROPEAN MODEL SUGGESTS A LOW INTENSITY. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE AMERICAN  MODEL (GFS) PERSISTS IN MODELLING A MORE
PRONOUNCED INTENSIFICATION. THE PRESENT FORECAST FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS AVAILABLE MODELS

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS FOR MOZAMBIQUE AND MALAWI:
- GOMBE IS STILL GENERATING WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION, DEGRADED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT SQUALLS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AS WELL AS NUMEROUS
GUSTS.
- THE WIND IS CURRENTLY GUSTING BETWEEN 80 AND 100 KM/H OVER NAMPULA
PROVINCE AND ITS COASTAL FRINGE AND MAY PEAK AT 140 KM/H. THESE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
- ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 200 MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OVER THE PROVINCES OF NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA, AND THEIR COASTAL BANGS.
LOCALLY, HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 350 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE. OVER THE WHOLE PERIOD, I.E. UNTIL THE EXIT OF GOMBE IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ACCUMULATIONS COULD
REACH LOCALLY BETWEEN 400 AND 600 MM MAXIMUM OVER THESE TWO
PROVINCES.
- SOME COASTAL PORTIONS OF NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA PROVINCES WILL REMAIN
TODAY, STILL IMPACTED BY WAVES OF AN AVERAGE HEIGHT OF 4M, WHICH CAN
GO UP TO 8M MAXIMUM FOR THE HIGHEST WAVES.

-MALAWI: SOUTHEASTERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY
RAINS AROUND THE RESIDENTIAL CENTER OF GOMBE MAINLY UNTIL SATURDAY,
WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 70 AND 100 MM OVER THE EPISODE.=

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