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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220311154958.7499A1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2022 15:49:58 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 111549
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec storm warning: A strong cold front will move
through the western Gulf of Mexico and southern Mexico Sat=20
afternoon into Sun. The tightening pressure gradient and drier=20
air following the front will combine and lead to a storm-force=20
gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Sat afternoon
and diminishing Sun morning. Gale force winds will then continue
through Sun early in the evening while fresh to strong winds=20
will continue through Mon morning. Peak seas will build between=20
16 to 20 ft offshore. A large plume of swell in excess of 8 ft=20
will extend as far as 500 nm downstream from the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec through mid week. For further details, please see the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane=20
Center, at this website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!sonTPOQg2CzpeIqEHzf3mQpM5AadbmULbxObTLhFGCrSDnGH9no0phGNgrirLSQPe=
7-giUTR$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A surface trough extends from the Panama and Colombian border
near 07N78W to 03N99W to 04N116W. The ITCZ extends from 04N116W=20
to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted about=20
100 nm north of the ITCZ between 124W to 140W. Scattered showers
are also possible along the monsoon trough between 89W to 114W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A broadening surface ridge continues across the area from high=20
pressure across the NE Pacific south and southeastward through=20
near 22N116W. The associated pressure gradient across the Baja=20
offshore waters is supporting mainly gentle Nly winds with seas=20
of 5 to 8 ft. A cold front has entered the Gulf of California=20
tonight and has begun to freshen winds across Baja Norte waters,=20
with winds up to 25 kts, and seas building 5 to 7 ft.=20

Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the Baja Sur and Gulf
of California through tonight before the cold front sweeps southward
across the Gulf and the Baja Peninsula. NW to N winds will freshen
across Baja Norte waters then across the remaining Baja offshore
waters today. Expect moderate to fresh winds along the Gulf with
seas building up to 8 ft in building NW swell. New northerly swell
behind the front will raise seas to 9 ft offshore Baja California
Norte. Strong winds will diminish Sat afternoon through Sun.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A weak pressure gradient across the area is leading to mainly=20
gentle winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Moderate E winds are=20
pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo diminish tonight.

Gentle winds will prevail. Fresh to locally strong gap winds=20
will pulse over the Papagayo region beginning again Sun, as high=20
pressure behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front moves N of the area.=20
Moderate to fresh winds are also likely to develop Sun night in=20
the Gulf of Panama.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1029 mb has settled N of the area near 35N132W.
A broad ridge extends southward to 110W. The combination of the
tight pressure gradient south of the ridge and the ITCZ is=20
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 04N to 20N, and
W of 120W, with gentle to moderate N to NE winds to the N. Seas=20
are 8 to 9 ft in mixed swell across the trade wind zone. To the=20
S of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail with seas
of 4 to 7 ft.

The pressure gradient S of 25N and W of 125W will continue to=20
support fresh trades across the area with seas ranging between
8 to 10 ft for the remainder of the week. Winds and seas will=20
diminish this weekend as a cold front approaches far NW portions=20
of the discussion area. Active convection is expected over the=20
weekend N of the ITCZ and W of 130W.=20

$$
Ramos


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