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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220311182749.EEEF51C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2022 18:27:49 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/111800Z-121800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
 A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
 B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
 C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
 A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
  (1) AT 11MAR22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 40.1E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 110900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
  (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
  (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.1S
110.1E, APPROXIMATELY 201 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 110840Z
SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING
CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED BANDING, BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERITCAL WIND SHEAR
(<15KTS), GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE
MAKING A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER,
UKMET AND JGSM DISAGREE WITH THE RATE AT WHICH 90S WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
  (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
 C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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