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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 9 (gombe) 
Message-ID: <20220311183343.CA8011C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2022 18:33:43 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 111832
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/9/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 38.6 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/12 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/13 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/13 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/14 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

72H: 2022/03/14 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/15 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2022/03/16 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, GOMBE CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD TRACK WHILE
WEAKENING PROGRESSIVELY. THE BANDED STRUCTURE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED BUT
WITH A MUCH REDUCED INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IT REMAINS
NOTICEABLE NEAR THE CENTER BUT MORE MARKED FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART AND ON THE COAST EAST OF NAMPULA. THE LOCATION OF
THE CENTER IS NOT EASY WITH THE ONLY HELP OF INFRARED IMAGES AND IN
THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE DATA. HOWEVER, THIS LOCATION ALLOWS US TO
ESTIMATE THE MAINTENANCE OF THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE
LAST AVAILABLE WIND MEASUREMENTS OF 15KT AT MORE THAN 50 KM FROM THE
CENTER PLEAD FOR AVERAGE WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 25KT, AT MOST.

NO CHANGE ON THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM, GOMBE'S TRACK REMAINS DRIVEN
IN THE SHORT TERM BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH
OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION WITH THE
DEPRESSION ADVANCING TO MORE THAN 250KM INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE.
DURING THE WEEKEND, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROGRESSIVELY SLIDE
WESTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH POTENTIAL FIELD SOUTH OF
GOMBE WHILE THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.
THIS CONFIGURATION SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN CURVE THE TRACK OF GOMBE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK, GOMBE WILL
RE-ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE IN A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. ON LONGER TIME SCALES, MODELS ARE STARTING TO DIVERGE IN
TERMS OF SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND TURNING. THE RECENT RUNS SEEM TO OPT
FOR A SLOWING DOWN BEFORE A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH OR
SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST DURING THE NIGHT OF TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THE RSMC
TRACK OPTS FOR THIS 4 DAY TURN SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE LANDMASS TO ONLY AVERAGE WINDS OF ABOUT 20KT DURING ITS
TRANSIT OVER LAND. AT THE TIME OF THE EXIT AT SEA PLANNED NEXT
MONDAY, THE MODELS ARE STRONGLY DISPERSED CONCERNING THE
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE MOST LIKELY VIEW THAT THE RSMC
FOLLOWS IS AN INTENSIFICATION LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF GOMBE.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS FOR MOZAMBIQUE AND MALAWI:
- GOMBE IS STILL GENERATING WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION, DEGRADED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 200 MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OVER THE PROVINCES OF NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA, AND THEIR COASTAL
BORDERS. OVER THE WHOLE PERIOD, THAT IS UNTIL THE RETURN OF GOMBE IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH LOCALLY BETWEEN 400 AND 600 MM MAXIMUM OVER
THESE TWO PROVINCES, THAT IS TO SAY MORE THAN DOUBLE THE USUAL
PRECIPITATIONS IN MARCH.
-MALAWI: SOUTHEASTERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY
RAINS AROUND THE RESIDENTIAL CENTER OF GOMBE MAINLY UNTIL SATURDAY,
WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 70 AND 100 MM OVER THE EPISODE.=

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