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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N:        Dems-rsmc Special Tropical Cyclones New Delhi Dated 05.03.2022 
Message-ID: <20220311185309.C4FB21C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2022 18:53:09 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 051545
       TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
       DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05.03.2022
       SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
       BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF
       05.03.2022 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 05.03.2022.
       DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
       THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY
       STATIONARY AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF 5TH MARCH 2022, OVER THE SAME
       REGION NEAR LATITUDE 11.7N AND LONGITUDE 82.5E, ABOUT 370 KM NORTH-
       NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418), 320KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NAGAPPATTINAM
       (43347), 290 KM EAST OF PUDUCHERRY (43331) AND ABOUT 270 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
       CHENNAI (43279).
                 IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU
       COAST AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO A DEPRESSION TILL 0000 UTC OF 06TH MARCH AND
       INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA TILL 0000 UTC OF 07TH MARCH.
       FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
       DATE/TIME          FORECAST           POSITION            MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    CATEGORY OF
                                                  (LAT. 0N/
      (UTC)                 LEAD                                       SURFACE         CYCLONIC
                                                 LONG. 0E)
                           PERIOD                              WIND SPEED (KMPH)       DISTURBANCE
      05.03.22/1200          00        11.7/82.5           50-60 GUSTING TO 70         DEEP DEPRESSION
      06.03.22/0000          12        11.6/82.1           45-55 GUSTING TO 65         DEPRESSION
      06.03.22/1200          24        11.4/81.7           40-50 GUSTING TO 60         DEPRESSION
                                                            30-40 GUSTING TO 50        PRESSURE AREA                           W ELL MARKED LOW
      07.03.22/0000          36        10.9/81.0   
                                                                              
       THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.0. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS HAS
       SHEARED TO THE NE OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION HAS
       ALSO DECREASED MARGINALLY IN LAST 3 HRS. ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY COVERING THE
       SYSTEM SHOWS WINDS OF ABOUT 30KTS IN THE NW SECTOR CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM
       CENTRE AT 0430UTC. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE
       TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BET LAT 8.5 N & 17.0 N AND LONG 81E
       TO 90.0E. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 73 DEG C. INTENSE
       CONVECTION LIES OVER NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM CENT ER.
       THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.
       THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL
       BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.
This is a guidance Bulletin for the WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries,. Please visit respective 
National websites for Country specific Bulletins
REMARKS:
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WESTCENTRAL BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80
KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY
LIES IN PHASE 5 W ITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE
SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING LESS THAN 1. THE
PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION DURING NEXT 2-3
DAYS.
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 150 X10-6 S-1 TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 10 X10-5 S-1 TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 10 X10-5 S-1 SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. W IND SHEAR IS MODERATE(10-15 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE
AND INCREASES W ESTWARDS TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL OVER SOUTH
PENINSULAR INDIA AND ADJOINING ARABIAN SEA, TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM, THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AFTER 1200 UTC
OF THE 5TH MARCH. FOR NEXT 24 HOURS, THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, SEA
SURFCAE AND WIND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN IT\u2019S
INTENSITY. THEREAFTER, DUE TO DRY AIR INCURSION FROM SOUTHWEST
SECTOR, DECREASED CORIOLOIS PARAMETER, THE SYSTEM WOULD START
WEAKENING GRADUALLY.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD
MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 1200 UTC OF 5TH MARCH AND THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS.

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