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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 9 (gombe) 
Message-ID: <20220312003051.9B7B01C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 12 Mar 2022 00:30:51 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 120002
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/9/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 38.2 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/12 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/03/13 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/13 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/14 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/14 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

72H: 2022/03/15 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/16 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2022/03/17 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

THE LOCALIZATION OF GOMBE IS STILL DELICATE IN THE ABSENCE OF
MICROWAVE DATA AND ON LAND WITH THE RELIEF EXISTING ON THE TRANSIT
AREA OF GOMBE. HOWEVER, THE TRACK SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINED TOWARDS THE
WEST AT A SPEED OF 5KT. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS COLLAPSED WELL LEAVING A RESIDUAL PART ON THE COAST AT
THE LEVEL OF THE CITY OF QUELIMANE.

NO CHANGE ON THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM, GOMBE'S TRACK REMAINS DRIVEN
IN THE SHORT TERM BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH
OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION WITH THE
DEPRESSION ADVANCING TO MORE THAN 250KM INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE.
DURING THE WEEKEND, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROGRESSIVELY SLIDE
WESTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH POTENTIAL FIELD SOUTH OF
GOMBE WHILE THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.
THIS CONFIGURATION SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN CURVE THE TRACK OF GOMBE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK, GOMBE WILL
RE-ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE IN A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. ON A LONGER TIME SCALE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN
TERMS OF SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND TURNING, BUT THE RECENT RUNS PRESENT A
CONSENSUS ON CONTRADICTORY CENTERS OF ACTION. THUS BY TUESDAY, UNDER
THE CONTRADICTORY EFFECT OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL, GOMBE SHOULD SLOW DOWN FOLLOWED
BY A TURN BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS REVERSAL
IS QUITE VARIABLE BETWEEN MODELS AND WILL HAVE TO BE CONFIRMED DURING
THE NEXT FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE
WITH LOW WIND INTENSITY. AT THE TIME OF NEXT MONDAY'S OUTING, THE
MODELS ARE HIGHLY DISPERSED CONCERNING THE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. THE MOST LIKELY VIEW THAT THE RSMC FOLLOWS IS AN
INTENSIFICATION LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TROPOSPHERE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF GOMBE, AT LEAST UNTIL THE
NEXT 4 DAYS, THE CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER LEAVING A POTENTIAL
FOR A MORE MARKED INTENSIFICATION IN THE LONGER TERM.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS FOR MOZAMBIQUE AND MALAWI:
- GOMBE IS STILL GENERATING DEGRADED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT
SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- OVER THE WHOLE PERIOD, THAT IS UNTIL THE RETURN OF GOMBE IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE ACCUMULATIONS
COULD REACH LOCALLY BETWEEN 400 AND 600 MM MAXIMUM SOUTH OF NAMPULA,
THAT IS TO SAY MORE THAN DOUBLE THE USUAL PRECIPITATIONS IN MARCH.
-MALAWI: SOUTHEASTERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY
RAINS AROUND THE RESIDENTIAL CENTER OF GOMBE MAINLY UNTIL SATURDAY,
WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 70 AND 100 MM OVER THE EPISODE.=

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