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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220312055658.5052B1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 12 Mar 2022 05:56:58 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 120630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/120630Z-121800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111951ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REFS A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 11MAR22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 38.4E, APPROXIMATELY 139 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NACALA,
MOZAMBIQUE AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 112100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1S 110.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 108.9E, APPROXIMATELY
191 NM EAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120435Z 89GHZ PASS REVEALS CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTION OVERHEAD A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; STRONG
RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL GENERALLY TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER THEY ARE SPLIT ON INTENSIFICATION WITH ECMWF
SHOWING SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN


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