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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Dems-rsmc Special Tropical Cyclones New Delhi Dated 06.03.2022 
Message-ID: <20220312065336.6C7711C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 12 Mar 2022 06:53:36 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 060257
                 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 06.03.2022
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0230 UTC OF
06.03.2022 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 06.03.2022.
DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NEARLY
  
SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 07 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY

CENTERED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY THE 6TH MARCH 2022, OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR

LATITUDE 11.2N AND LONGITUDE 82.2E, ABOUT 310 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF

TRINCOMALEE (43418), 260 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NAGAPPATTINAM (43347), 270 KM

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY (43331) AND ABOUT 280 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF

CHENNAI (43279).
  
  IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST
  
AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 06
 
      HOURS.
 
   FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

DATE/TIME(UTC)   FORECAST        POSITION       MAXIMUM SUSTAINED  CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
                 LEAD PERIOD   (LAT.0N/LONG.0E) SURFACE WIND         DISTURBANCE
                                                 SPEED (KMPH)                                       
                                                          
06.03.22/0000    00            11.2/82.2       40-50 GUSTING TO 60     DEPRESSION
                                                                                                       
06.03.22/1200    12            10.9/81.9       30-40 GUSTING TO 50   WELL MARKED LOW 
                                                                      PRESSURE AREA
      
 THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS HAS
       SHEARED TO THE NE OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION HAS
       ALSO DECREASED MARGINALLY IN LAST 3 HRS. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED CLOUDS
       WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BET LAT 10.0
       N & 16.0 N AND LONG 81.5E TO 90.0E. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93
       DEG C.. CONVECTION WITHIN THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED DURING LAST 06 HOURS
       THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS.
       THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING
       WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA.
       REMARKS:
       LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 100 X10-6 S-1 SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
       VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
       HAS DECREAED AND IS AROUND 5 X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
       CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 10 X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST OF
This is a guidance Bulletin for the WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries,. Please visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. W IND SHEAR IS MODERATE (15 KNOTS) AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE AND INCREASES W ESTWARDS TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL OVER SOUTH
PENINSULAR INDIA AND ADJOINING ARABIAN SEA, TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM, THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AND DUE TO DRY AIR
INCURSION FROM SOUTHWEST SECTOR, INCRESING SHEAR AND DECREASED
CORIOLIS PARAMETER, THE SYSTEM WOULD W EAKEN GRADUALLY.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT THE SYSTEM W OULD
MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.

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