Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 9 (gombe) 
Message-ID: <20220312071910.B423C1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 12 Mar 2022 07:19:10 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1647069555-112669-14447"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1647069555-112669-14447
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 120716
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/9/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 37.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/03/13 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/13 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/14 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/14 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

72H: 2022/03/15 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/16 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/03/17 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

THE LOCALIZATION OF GOMBE REMAINS ALWAYS DELICATE EVEN ON THE LAST
MICROWAVE DATA, AND ON EARTH WITH THE EXISTING RELIEF ON THE TRANSIT
ZONE OF GOMBE. HOWEVER, THE TRAJECTORY SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINED IN A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT A SPEED OF 5KT. DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS COLLAPSED WELL LEAVING
A RESIDUAL PART ON THE COAST BETWEEN PENBA AND QUELIMANE, AND WEST OF
THE CITY OF QUELIMANE TO THE SOUTH OF MALAWI.

NO CHANGE ON THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM, THE TRACK OF GOMBE REMAINS
DRIVEN IN THE SHORT TERM BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
ADVANCING THE DEPRESSION TO MORE THAN 250KM INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE.
 DURING THE WEEKEND, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH POTENTIAL FIELD SOUTH OF
GOMBE, APPROACHING A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH, WHILE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. THIS CONFIGURATION SHOULD SLOW
DOWN AND THEN BEND GOMBE'S TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH, THEN SOUTHEAST
FROM SUNDAY/MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK, GOMBE COULD EMERGE IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

  ON A LONGER TIME SCALE, THERE IS STILL A LARGE DISPERSION BETWEEN
THE DIFFERENT MODELS, AND ALSO A STRONG INSTABILITY FROM ONE RUN TO
ANOTHER FOR THE DETERMINIST MODELS. NEVERTHELESS, THE LATEST MODELS
AVAILABLE RECONSTRUCT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MORE OR LESS QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, REJECTING THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE EAST
OR NORTH-EAST ALONG THE COAST AT FIRST.
 BEYOND THAT, AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS IMPORTANT, EVEN IF THE NUMBER OF MEMBERS PROPOSING A
SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY IS DECREASING IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS OF BOTH IFS
AND GFS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE
WITH LOW WIND INTENSITY.
BY THE TIME OF THE MONDAY/TUESDAY OUTFLOW, THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
SHOWING ALMOST NO RE-INTENSIFICATION (ONLY A FEW MARGINAL MEMBERS OF
GFS). THE MOST LIKELY VIEW THAT THE RSMC FOLLOWS IS AN
INTENSIFICATION LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TROPOSPHERE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF GOMBE, DURING ITS PASSAGE ON
THE CHANNEL, BEFORE A NEW LANDING ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS FOR MOZAMBIQUE AND MALAWI:
- GOMBE CONTINUED TO CAUSE DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
FREQUENT SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- OVER THE ENTIRE PERIOD, UNTIL GOMBE EXITS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH LOCALLY BETWEEN 150 AND
250 MM MAXIMUM BETWEEN MAMPULA AND BEIRA AND UP TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF MALAWI.

GIVEN THE LOW INTENSITY OF GOMBE OVER LAND, NOT ALLOWING A FOLLOW-UP
OF THE CENTER, THIS WARNING IS THE LAST ONE ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS
RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

------------=_1647069555-112669-14447
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1647069555-112669-14447--