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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220312092608.01C751C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 12 Mar 2022 09:26:08 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 120925
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Mar 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec storm warning: A strong cold front has moved=20
into the NW Gulf tonight and is expected to reach the southern=20
Gulf by mid morning today. Northerly winds following the front=20
will funnel across the Chivela Pass, leading to the development=20
of storm-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by 1500 UTC.
Strong to gale-force winds will begin to affect the region of=20
Tehuantepec Sat morning, rapidly increasing to storm-force=20
during the afternoon hours along with building seas up to 22 ft.
Winds will diminish to strong gale-force Sat night and continue=20
through Sun afternoon. Afterwards, strong to near gale force=20
winds will gradually diminish through Mon morning. For further=20
details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by=20
the National Hurricane Center, at this website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!vOjgmgKcNO22VGDXuivbOS4I3XVoFfraiodpuD-k-62T6_tIcIpk5llRQZToe3D68=
cMe6Uws$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A surface trough extends from the coast of Panama near 07N78W to
03N95W to 03N106W. The ITCZ extends from 03N106W to beyond 03N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 126W to
135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Surface ridging anchored by a 1030 mb high near 33N128W continues
to provide moderate NE winds along the Baja California offshore=20
waters with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Along the Gulf of California,
scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong NW winds across the=20
Gulf extending south to Clarion Island. Seas range between 5 to 7 ft.
Gentle NW winds are elsewhere along the S and SW Mexican offshore
waters, except near Puerto Vallarta where moderate to fresh winds
are noted with seas in the 2-5 ft range.

A gap wind event is forecast for the region of Tehuantepec with
gale-force winds starting Sat morning rapidly increasing to
storm-force during the afternoon hours. See the Special Features
section for further details. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of
California will funnel through the central and southern Baja
peninsula into the offshore waters. The pressure gradient across
the area will diminish Sat afternoon and winds along the Gulf of
California will gradually diminish into this evening. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh winds will prevail off Baja California Norte=20
through the middle of next week when the next gap wind event is=20
forecast for Tehuantepec.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A weak pressure gradient across the area is supporting light to=20
gentle variable winds with seas to 5 ft. Scatterometer pass
indicated moderate E winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo
out to 88W. In the Gulf of Panama, gentle to moderate N winds
are noted.=20

Gentle winds will prevail through most of the forecast period,
except for the Papagayo region where winds will pulse to fresh=20
to strong by Sun through the middle of the week. Moderate=20
northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight=20
through Mon night.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1030 mb centered near 33N128W continues to extend
a ridge across the high seas, supporting moderate to fresh NE to
E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft N of the ITCZ and W of 115W. Locally
strong winds are noted from 10N to 15N W of 137W.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue across the area=20
with seas ranging between 8 to 10 ft through mid-week. Active=20
convection is expected over the weekend N of the ITCZ and W of=20
130W.=20

$$
Torres


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