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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Sat, 12 Mar 2022 12:49:39 +0000
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213 
AWIO20 FMEE 121246

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/03/12 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Last warning WTIO24 023/9 issued yesterday at 18 UTC and last warning WTIO30 026/9 issued at today at 06utc on the overland depression GOMBE.

 
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present west of 70oE and feeds a Monsoon trough (MT) whose axis undulates between 10S and 12S west of 70oE. East of 70oE, the lasting installation of a western equatorial flow now defines a Near Equatorial Trough configuration centered between 05S and 10S. Convective activity is generally weak to locally moderate within this mixed configuration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

Overland depression GOMBE :

Position at 09 UTC : 15.1S / 36.2E (approximate position - center very badly defined)

Forward motion : West 8kt

The overland depression GOMBE has lost well its organisation as it moves overland and the low pressure center is located this afternoon near the Mozambique/Malawi border. This system could re-enter the waters of the central Mozambique Channel on Monday. There is a lot of uncertainty about the future of this system with contradictory developments among deterministic models (no deepening proposed by GFS while IFS suggests a significant redevelopment ...). This disparity is also observed between the American and European ensembles.

There is a low risk (Monday) then moderate (from Tuesday) that this system becomes a tropical storm over the Mozambique Channel.

Until then, heavy thundery rains, eventually giving additional accumulations in 48 hours to 150-200 mm locally more, will remain over southern Malawi and the province of Zambeze in Mozambique.

North of the Mascarene Islands:

A low-level clockwise circulation is suggested on the satellite animation around 12S and 52E. In an environment that is not very favorable to its development, especially in terms of low level convergence initially and then in terms of shear, this system still has no potential for development in the next few days. It should nevertheless remain more or less in place over the next few days before dissipating either near its current position or over the northeast coast of Madagascar.

There is no risk of a tropical storm forming within this area.

In the Australian zone:

A low-pressure system located around 11S and 108E (see BoM advisory IDW10800) has the potential to develop into a tropical storm by Tuesday (estimated risk of 20-50% by our colleagues at the Australian Weather Service). On a west-southwest track, this system could enter our area of responsibility on Wednesday or Thursday. Deterministic models suggest that the environment has become unfavorable for the maintenance of this system (northwesterly shear and dry air intrusion). The European and to a lesser degree the American ensemble forecasts suggest a more zonal scenario with slightly more favorable conditions.

There is a low risk of a tropical storm re-entering the eastern part of the basin from Wednesday.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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