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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220312175537.2B1101C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 12 Mar 2022 17:55:37 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 12MAR22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 36.7E, APPROXIMATELY 459 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA
ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 120900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1S 110.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 107.7E, APPROXIMATELY
297 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121146Z 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS
REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC); THAT IS CONFIRMED BY A 121450Z METOP-B
BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT,
LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 90S WILL GENERALLY TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER THEY ARE
SPLIT ON INTENSIFICATION WITH ECMWF SHOWING SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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