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[148.163.139.28]) by mx.google.com with ESMTPS id t8-20020a259088000000b00629356632desi7010683ybl.1.2022.03.13.00.56.31 for (version=TLS1_2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 bits=128/128); Sun, 13 Mar 2022 00:56:31 -0800 (PST) Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28; Authentication-Results: mx.google.com; spf=pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu Received: from pps.filterd (m0166258.ppops.net [127.0.0.1]) by mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (8.16.1.2/8.16.1.2) with ESMTP id 22D8I2MO011115 for ; Sun, 13 Mar 2022 08:56:31 GMT Received: from lists.illinois.edu (lists.illinois.edu [192.17.172.63]) by mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (PPS) with ESMTP id 3erhvry96a-7 for ; Sun, 13 Mar 2022 08:56:31 +0000 Received: by lists.illinois.edu (Postfix, from userid 50033) id 1E80DE4292; Sun, 13 Mar 2022 03:56:31 -0500 (CDT) Delivered-To: wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu Received: from mx0a-00007101.pphosted.com (mx0a-00007101.pphosted.com [148.163.135.28]) by lists.illinois.edu (Postfix) with ESMTPS id A140EE25CA for ; Sun, 13 Mar 2022 03:56:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: from pps.filterd (m0166256.ppops.net [127.0.0.1]) by mx0a-00007101.pphosted.com (8.16.1.2/8.16.1.2) with ESMTP id 22D8mFBv014370 for ; Sun, 13 Mar 2022 08:56:22 GMT Received: from fortimail.cod.edu (fortimail.cod.edu [192.203.136.203]) by mx0a-00007101.pphosted.com (PPS) with ESMTPS id 3ergkyfkec-1 (version=TLSv1.2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES256-GCM-SHA384 bits=256 verify=NOT) for ; Sun, 13 Mar 2022 08:56:22 +0000 Received: from mail.cod.edu ([10.11.1.123]) by fortimail.cod.edu with ESMTP id 22D8uH3W013122-22D8uH3Y013122 (version=TLSv1.2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES256-GCM-SHA384 bits=256 verify=OK) for ; Sun, 13 Mar 2022 03:56:17 -0500 Received: from MAIL19.cdnet-ad.ad.cod.edu (10.11.1.123) by MAIL19.cdnet-ad.ad.cod.edu (10.11.1.123) with Microsoft SMTP Server (version=TLS1_2, cipher=TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_256_GCM_SHA384) id 15.2.986.15; Sun, 13 Mar 2022 03:56:16 -0500 Received: from weather.cod.edu (10.11.2.79) by MAIL.cod.edu (10.11.1.123) with Microsoft SMTP Server id 15.2.986.15 via Frontend Transport; Sun, 13 Mar 2022 03:56:16 -0500 Received: by weather.cod.edu (Postfix, from userid 1001) id D90881C0EEF; Sun, 13 Mar 2022 08:56:16 +0000 (UTC) From: COD Weather Processor To: Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (invest 90s)// Message-ID: <20220313085616.D90881C0EEF@weather.cod.edu> Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2022 08:56:16 +0000 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-FE-Policy-ID: 7:6:2:SYSTEM X-Spam-Details: rule=cautious_plus_nq_notspam policy=cautious_plus_nq score=0 priorityscore=325 lowpriorityscore=0 suspectscore=0 mlxscore=0 malwarescore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 clxscore=331 impostorscore=0 adultscore=0 spamscore=0 mlxlogscore=513 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx scancount=1 engine=8.12.0-2202240000 definitions=main-2203130054 X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather.cod.edu X-Spam-Bar: X-Sympa-Topic: Indian-S Reply-To: COD Weather Processor X-Loop: wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu X-Sequence: 283741 Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu Precedence: list Precedence: bulk X-no-archive: yes List-Id: List-Help: List-Owner: List-Post: List-Subscribe: List-Unsubscribe: Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1647161785-112669-16698" X-Proofpoint-GUID: VBvn1Cwu4Mo-S9KbQt_SSqOBBBU50bZj X-Proofpoint-ORIG-GUID: VBvn1Cwu4Mo-S9KbQt_SSqOBBBU50bZj X-Spam-Details: rule=cautious_plus_nq_notspam policy=cautious_plus_nq score=0 priorityscore=1501 suspectscore=0 adultscore=0 clxscore=1015 malwarescore=0 lowpriorityscore=0 spamscore=0 phishscore=0 impostorscore=0 bulkscore=0 mlxlogscore=913 mlxscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx scancount=1 engine=8.12.0-2202240000 definitions=main-2203130054 X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-OrigSender: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu X-Spam-Bar: This is a multi-part message in MIME format... ------------=_1647161785-112669-16698 Content-Type: text/plain WTXS21 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0S 105.6E TO 15.9S 100.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 105.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 107.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 161 NM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND A 130641Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. A 130249Z BULLSEYE ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL GENERALLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER, THEY ARE STILL SPLIT ON INTENSIFICATION WITH ECMWF SHOWING SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 140900Z. // NNNN ------------=_1647161785-112669-16698 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Disposition: inline Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT = = = == = = To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL. ------------=_1647161785-112669-16698--