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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220313091604.2E66A1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2022 09:16:04 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/130900Z-131800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121951ZMAR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130851ZMAR2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 12MAR22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 35.1E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF LILONGWE,
MALAWI, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 122100) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 107.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY
161 NM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 130641Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE
FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. A 100249Z BULLSEYE ASCAT-C PASS
SHOWS 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC.  IMAGERY
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL GENERALLY
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER THEY ARE STILL SPLIT ON
INTENSIFICATION WITH ECMWF SHOWING SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO
28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B


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