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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2022 11:26:27 +0000
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144 
AWIO20 FMEE 131124

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/03/13 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Last warning WTIO30 026/9 issued at yesterday at 06utc on the overland depression GOMBE.

 
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present west of 70oE and feeds a Monsoon trough (TM) whose axis undulates between 11S and 8S west of 70oE. East of 70oE, the lasting installation of a western equatorial flow now defines a pattern of Near Equatorial Talweg centered between 09S and 6S.

Convective activity is generally weak to locally moderate within this mixed pattern of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and mainly present on the polar side of this trough, fed by the trade winds generated by a vate anticyclonic cell that occupies almost the entire southern basin.

Overland depression GOMBE :

Position at 10 UTC : 16.8S / 34.9E (approximate position - center very badly defined)

Forward motion : South South-West 7kt

The overland low pressure system GOMBE has broken down well as it moves overland and the low pressure center is located this afternoon near the Mozambique/Malawi border. This system could re-enter the waters of the central Mozambique Channel on Monday or Tuesday. There is a lot of uncertainty about the future of this system with contradictory evolutions among deterministic models (no deepening proposed by GFS while IFS suggests a significant redevelopment for the deterministic and for some of its members of the ensemble forecast...). This disparity is also observed between the American and European ensembles.

There is a low risk from Wednesday that this system becomes a tropical storm over the Mozambique Channel.

Until then, heavy thundery rains, eventually giving additional accumulations in 48 hours to 150-200 mm locally more, will remain over southern Malawi and the province of Zambeze in Mozambique.

North of the Mascarene Islands:

A weak low-pressure circulation is suggested by the satellite animation around 11S and 51E, confirmed by the HY-2C pass at 1730Z yesterday. In an environment that is not conducive to its development, especially in terms of convergence of low layers initially and then in terms of shear in a second phase, this system still has no potential for development over the next few days. It should nevertheless remain more or less in place over the next few days before dissipating either on the spot or over the northeast coast of Madagascar.

There is no risk of formation of a tropical storm in this area.

In the Australian zone:

A low-pressure system located around 12.5S 105.1E (see bulletin IDW10800 written by the BoM) has the potential to develop into a tropical storm from Tuesday onwards (risk estimated at 20-50% by our colleagues from the Australian weather service, then above 50% from Wednesday). On a trajectory towards the West-South-West, this system could enter our area of responsibility on Wednesday or Thursday with only a moderate risk (probability close to 30%) that it will still be a tropical storm at this time.

Deterministic models suggest an environment that has become unconducive to the maintenance of this system (north-westerly shear and intrusion of dry air). The European and to a lesser degree American ensemble forecasts suggest a more zonal scenario with slightly more conducive conditions.

There is a moderate risk of a tropical storm re-entering the eastern part of the basin from Wednesday/Thursday.

 
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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