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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220313221408.BC7E41C0EF0@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2022 22:14:08 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 132204
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Mar 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Gale-force N to NE winds=20=20
continue in the Tehuantepec region as a tight gradient remains in
place over southern Mexico. Peak wave heights with these winds=20
are in the 8-11 ft range. The wind fetch and swell associated=20
with this event extends as far as 102W and 08N. Winds over the
Tehuantepec offshore waters will diminish below gale-force=20
speeds tonight and to strong speeds on Mon. Wave heights will
continue to subside through Mon. A second gap wind event is
forecast to begin Tue night with near gale-force N to NE winds=20
continuing through Wed as high pressure builds southward over=20
eastern Mexico. For further details, please see the latest NWS=20
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at=20
this website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!vuMKI7pBleKsoIfYyWXohay3O3XObpMBakzeLAZi6hdjDuqkkmcaLFtKaYZbTnPUM=
bNQRwgz$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A surface trough extends from northwestern Colombia near 06N77W=20
to 02S85W to 01N102W to 04N116W. The ITCZ then continues along=20=20
03N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to
13N W of 118W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Surface ridging anchored by a 1028 mb high near 29N128W is=20
maintaining moderate to fresh N to NW winds along the Baja=20
California offshore waters, with wave heights of 3-5 ft in NW=20
swell. Light to gentle variable winds are along the Gulf of=20
California with 3 ft seas. Light to gentle variable winds are=20
elsewhere along the SW Mexican offshore waters, with wave heights
of 3-5 ft.=20

A gap wind event is ongoing for the region of Tehuantepec with=20
gale-force winds to 35 kt. See the Special Features section for=20
further details. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will prevail=20
off Baja California through Thu as the ridge continues to shift=20
eastward the next couple of days. A second NW swell event will=20
affect the Baja California Norte offshore waters Mon night with
seas of 8-10 ft extending to Cabo San Lucas Thu and Thu night.=20=20
Otherwise, the next gap wind event for the Tehuantepec region is=20
forecast to begin Tue morning and continue through Wed.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh NE to E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 6=20
ft while moderate N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama with=20=20
3-5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh NE winds and northerly swell
associated with a gap wind event in the region of Tehuantepec is
affecting portions of the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore
waters with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Light to gentle variable winds=20
are elsewhere with seas of 3-5 ft.=20

Gentle winds continue will through most of the forecast period,=20
except for the Papagayo region where the fresh to strong winds
will continue to pulse through Wed. Moderate northerly winds=20
will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Mon night. Otherwise,
swell associated with the gap wind in the Tehuantepec region=20
will subside over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters=20
on Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1028 mb near 29N128W continues to extend a=20
ridge across the area all the way south to near 10N. The related
gradient against the ITCZ continues to support moderate to fresh
NE to E winds and wave heights 7-9 ft north of the ITCZ to 20N=20
and west of 120W. Locally strong winds are likely over the
far western tropical waters as the ridge stays nearly stationary
as a surface trough moves across the area through mid-week. Wave
heights with the strongest winds are forecast in the 8-11 ft
range. Otherwise, NW swell will enter the NW forecast waters on
Mon evening with 8-11 ft seas extending SE across most of the
region through the middel of the week.=20

$$
Ramos


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