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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220314032037.05D111C0EF0@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2022 03:20:36 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 140320
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Mar 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0315 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Gale-force north to northeast
winds continue in the Tehuantepec region as a tight gradient=20
remains in place over southern Mexico. Peak wave heights with=20
these winds are in the 8-11 ft range. The wind fetch and swell=20
associated with this event extends as far as 102W and 08N. Winds=20
over the Tehuantepec offshore waters will diminish to just below
gale-force by late tonight and to strong speeds on Mon. Wave=20
heights will continue to subside through Mon. A second gap wind=20
event is forecast to begin Tue morning, with near gale-force
north to northeast winds continuing through Wed as high pressure
builds southward over eastern Mexico. For further details,=20
please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center, at this website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!twyNWboKYZrTVUfiyRMk-6_WH-AvVGFs_UBmPTW68XbM3_1Qp2xvB-UCRFeVz0Ssl=
R3qNJmQ$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A surface trough extends from northwestern Colombia to the coast=20
at 07N78W and continues to 06N83W and to near 08N89W. Another=20
surface trough extends from 04N103W to 04N115W and 05N123W,=20
where latest scatterometer data indicates that the ITCZ begins,
and continues to 06N131W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between
128W-130W, within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 133W-138W
and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 125W-128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details=20
regarding an an ongoing gap wind gale event in the Gulf=20
of Tehuantepec region.

Surface ridging anchored by a 1026 mb high near 30N128W is=20
maintaining mainly fresh northwest winds along the Baja=20
California offshore waters, with wave heights of 4-6 ft in NW=20
swell. Light to gentle variable winds are along the Gulf of=20
California with 3 ft seas. Light to gentle variable winds are=20
elsewhere along the SW Mexican offshore waters along with wave=20
heights of 3-5 ft due to a northwest swell.=20

As for the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will=20
prevail off Baja California through Thu as the ridge continues
to shift eastward the next couple of days. Northwest swell will=20
begin to move through the waters offshore Baja California Norte=20
Tue reaching south the waters offshore Cabo San Lucas Thu and Thu
night. Otherwise, the next gap wind event for the Tehuantepec=20
region is forecast to begin Tue morning and continue through Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of=20
Papagayo along with wave heights in the range of 5-7 ft. Fresh
north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama along with
wave heights of 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh northeast winds and=20
northerly swell associated with a gap wind event in the region of
Tehuantepec is affecting portions of the Guatemala and El=20
Salvador offshore waters with wave heights in the range of=20
6-9 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with wave=20
heights of 3-5 ft due to a south to southwest swell.

As for the forecast, gentle winds continue will through most of=20
the forecast period, except for the Papagayo region where the=20
fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse through Wed.=20
Moderate northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama=20
through Mon night. Otherwise, swell associated with the gap wind=20
in the Tehuantepec region will subside over the Guatemala and El=20
Salvador offshore waters on Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 30N128W, with a ridge=20
extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The=20
associated gradient between this ridge and relatively lower=20
pressure to its south continues to sustain moderate to fresh=20
northeast to east winds along with wave heights of 7-9 ft north=20
of the surface trough and ITCZ to near 22N and west of about=20
115W. Locally strong northeast to east trade winds are likely=20
over the far western tropical waters as the ridge stays nearly=20
stationary, and while a surface trough moves westward across the=20
area through Wed. Wave heights with the strongest winds are=20
forecast in the 8-11 ft range. Otherwise, northwest swell will=20
enter the NW forecast waters on Mon evening with wave heights of=20
8-11 ft eventually propagating southeastward through most of the=20
region going into Wed.=20

$$
Aguirre


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