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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220314094154.90B4B1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2022 09:41:54 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 140941
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Mar 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from northwestern Colombia to the coast 
at 07N78W and continues to 06N81W and to near 08N89W. Another 
surface trough extends from 04N106W to 03N115W and to 05N121W, 
where latest scatterometer data indicates that the ITCZ begins, 
and continues to 06N130W and to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between
133W-136W, within 60 nm north of ITCZ between 133W-135W and 
within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 127W-130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The earlier gale-force north to northeast winds that were over 
the Tehuantepec region have diminished to 25-30 kt per the 0406Z
overnight ASCAT pass. The resultant wave heights of 8-10 ft will
subside today. Wave heights of 6-8 ft well downstream of the 
Gulf from 04N to 09N between 96W-103W will subside to less than 
8 ft by early this evening. A second gap wind event is forecast 
to begin Tue morning, with near gale-force north to northeast 
winds continuing through Wed as high pressure builds southward 
over eastern Mexico.

Surface ridging anchored by a 1028 mb high near 30N128W is 
maintaining mainly fresh northwest winds along the Baja 
California offshore waters, with wave heights of 4-6 ft in
northwest swell. Light to gentle variable winds are along the 
Gulf of California with 3 ft seas. Light to gentle variable winds
are elsewhere along the SW Mexican offshore waters along with 
wave heights of 3-5 ft due to a northwest swell. 

As for the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will 
prevail off Baja California through Thu as the ridge continues
to shift eastward the next couple of days. Northwest swell will 
begin to move through the waters offshore Baja California Norte 
Tue reaching south the waters offshore Cabo San Lucas Thu and Thu
night. Otherwise, the next gap wind event for the Tehuantepec 
region is forecast to begin Tue morning and continue through Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo along with wave heights in the range of 6-8 ft. Fresh 
north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama along with 
wave heights of 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh northeast winds and 
northerly swell associated with a gap wind event in the region of
Tehuantepec is affecting portions of the Guatemala and El 
Salvador offshore waters with wave heights in the range of 6-9 
ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with wave 
heights of 3-5 ft due to a south to southwest swell.

As for the forecast, gentle winds continue will through most of 
the forecast period, except for the Papagayo region where the 
fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse through Wed. 
Moderate northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama 
through Mon night. Otherwise, swell associated with the gap wind 
in the Tehuantepec region will subside over the Guatemala and El 
Salvador offshore waters on Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 30N128W, with a ridge 
extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
associated gradient between this ridge and relatively lower 
pressure to its south continues to sustain moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds along with wave heights of 7-9 ft north 
of the surface trough and ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 
115W. Locally strong northeast to east trade winds are likely 
over the far western tropical waters as the ridge stays nearly 
stationary, and while a surface trough moves westward across the 
area through Wed. Wave heights with the strongest winds are 
forecast in the 8-11 ft range. Otherwise, northwest swell will 
enter the NW forecast waters this evening, with wave heights of 
8-11 ft. This swell set is forecast to eventually propagate 
southeastward through most of the region going into Wed. 

A broad upper-level trough is over the western part of the area 
from 09N to 20N and west of about 133W. A surface trough induced
by this feature extends from near 22N133W to near 14N139W. Upper
level-divergence is supporting areas of rain along with 
scattered moderate convection to the east of these features from 
09N to 17N and between 130W-139W.

$$
Aguirre


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