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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220314120459.4D8A01C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2022 12:04:59 +0000
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598 
AWIO20 FMEE 141146

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/03/14 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present west of 70oE and feeds a Monsoon trough (TM) whose axis undulates between 11S and 8S west of 70oE. East of 70oE, the lasting installation of a western equatorial flow now defines a pattern of Near Equatorial Talweg centered between 09S and 6S.

Convective activity is globally weak to locally moderate within this mixed pattern of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and mainly present on the polar side of these talwegs, generated by the trade winds made by a large anticyclonic cell that occupies almost the entire southern basin.

Several areas are currently under surveillance :

Remnant Low GOMBE :

Position at 10 UTC: 18.3S / 36.9E.

The remnant low GOMBE has made its turn over the South of Malawi and has just returned to the waters of the Mozambique Channel at midday. The convection around this minimum is no longer really organized and the environmental conditions encountered do not seem conducive to a new intensification. The European and American deterministic models no longer propose any real deepening while some runs of the ensemblistic models still persist in intensification.

There is still a low risk from Wednesday that this system becomes a tropical storm over the Mozambique Channel.

North of the Mascarene Islands :

A weak low-pressure circulation is suggested in the satellite animation around 11S and 51E, confirmed by the HY-2B pass of 0130Z. In an environment that is not conducive to its development, especially in terms of convergence of low layers initially and then in terms of shear in a second phase, this system still has no potential for development over the next few days. It should nevertheless remain more or less in place over the next few days before dissipating either on the spot or over the northeast coast of Madagascar.

There is no risk of a tropical storm forming within this area.

In the Australian zone :

A tropical depression is currently located in the Australian zone around 15.7S 100.3E (see bulletin IDW10800 written by the BoM) and is intensifying. It could very soon reach the stage of a moderate tropical storm and it is moving towards South-West. It could enter our area of responsibility during the night of Wednesday to Thursday with only a moderate risk (probability close to 30%) that it will still be a tropical storm at this time. Deterministic models suggest an environment that would have become unconducive to the maintenance of this system (NW shear and dry air intrusion). The European and to a lesser degree American ensemble forecasts suggest a more zonal scenario with slightly more conducive conditions.

There is a moderate risk of a moderate tropical storm re-entering the eastern part of the basin from Wednesday/Thursday.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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