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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220314220311.1C88B1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2022 22:03:11 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 142203
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Mar 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Middle-level divergent flow and an upper level trough over the
far western tropical high seas waters is supporting a surface
trough and a broad area of moderate convection from 05N to 19N
west of 122W. Recent scatterometer data showed a large area of
gale force winds in that region while altimeter data showed seas
of 8 to 12 ft. The persistence of a strong surface ridge to the 
north and the aforementioned surface trough will allow the
continuation of gale force winds in that region through Tue
morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast for further
details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from northwestern Colombia to the coast 
at 06N77W and continues to 07N88W. Another surface trough 
extends from 00N104W to 04N118W, where the ITCZ begins, and 
continues to 05N130W and to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 05N to 19N W of 122W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Surface ridging anchored by a 1028 mb high near 30N126W is 
maintaining moderate to fresh northwest winds along the Baja 
California offshore waters, with wave heights of 4-7 ft in 
northwest swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds are along the Gulf 
of California with 3 ft seas. Light to gentle variable winds are 
elsewhere along the S and SW Mexican offshore waters along with 
wave heights of 3-5 ft due to a northwest swell. 

As for the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will 
prevail off Baja California through Thu as the ridge remains in
place the next couple of days. Northwest swell will begin to 
move through the waters offshore Baja California Norte tonight 
reaching the waters offshore Cabo San Lucas Thu and Thu night. A 
gap wind event is forecast to begin Tue morning in the region of
Tehuantepec, with near gale-force north to northeast winds 
continuing through Wed as high pressure builds southward over 
eastern Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo along with wave heights in the range of 6-8 ft. Moderate 
north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama along with 
wave heights of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are 
elsewhere with wave heights of 3-5 ft due to a south to southwest
swell.

As for the forecast, gentle winds will continue through most of 
the forecast period, except for the Papagayo region where the 
fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse through Wed. 
Moderate northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama 
through tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 30N126W, with a ridge 
extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
associated gradient between this ridge and relatively lower 
pressure to its south continues to sustain moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds along with wave heights of 7-9 ft north 
of the surface trough and ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 
115W. Locally strong northeast to east trade winds are likely 
over the far western tropical waters as the ridge stays nearly 
stationary, and while a surface trough moves westward across the 
area through Wed. Wave heights with the strongest winds are 
forecast in the 8-11 ft range. Otherwise, northwest swell will 
enter the NW forecast waters this evening, with wave heights of 
8-11 ft. This swell set is forecast to eventually propagate 
southeastward through most of the region going into Wed. 

A broad upper-level trough is over the western part of the area 
from 09N to 20N and west of about 133W. Upper level-divergence 
is supporting areas of rain along with scattered moderate 
convection to the east of this feature from 09N to 17N and 
between 130W-139W.

$$
Ramos


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