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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220315020054.5BB091C0EF0@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2022 02:00:54 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 150200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/150200Z-151800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141951ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.6N 87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.1N 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION OVER A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 142230 SSMIS COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE
REVEALS CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED ALONG A BROAD SPIRAL BAND WRAPPING
INTO A DEVELOPING LLC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 91B IS
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (26-27C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY HIGH (25-
30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91B
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WITH GFS AND NAVGEM INDICATING INTENSIFICATION
TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN 72 TO 96 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT
LEVEL OF ORGANIZATIONAL IMPROVEMENT SUGGESTS THIS MAY OCCUR MORE
RAPIDLY THAN MODELS ARE DEPICTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 14MAR22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 98.9E, APPROXIMATELY 922 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
142100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANTS OF 19S (GOMBE) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3S
37.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 37.3E. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 142312Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES FLARING CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE PAST 6
TO 12 HOURS OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE REMNANTS OF GOMBE REMAIN IN A FAIR
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29C), AND LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR (10-20KTS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CIRCULATION WILL TRACK BACK OVER
LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, IF 19S REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY OFF SHORE IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW
FOR REDEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.1S 50.5E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141855Z GMI 89GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVING DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN
PERIFERY OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OFFSETTING MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SYMMETRIC. GLOBAL MODELS, NAMELY ECMWF, ARE INDICATING A SHORT LIVED
OPPOTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREAS IN 1.B.(1) AND 2.B.(1)
AND 2.B.(2) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN


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