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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220315034040.A2CCF1C0EF0@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2022 03:40:40 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 150340
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Mar 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: A rather broad mid to upper-level trough is over=20
the far western part of the area from 05N to 19N between=20
130W-141W. The induced surface trough is along a position from=20
13N138W to 06N140W. The gradient between surface trough and high=20
pressure to its north is supporting gale-force northeast to east=20
winds of 30-35 kt from 06N to 09N and between 138W-140W. Wave=20
heights produced by these winds are in the 8-12 ft range per
earlier received altimeter data. By Tue morning the gradient=20
will relax just enough allowing for the gale-force winds to=20
diminish to strong speeds. Wave heights will subside slightly at=20
that time. For further details please see the latest NWS High=20
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at this=20
website:=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!o9ce4LbfwZjkADKcicMdAp65ZjQa1vFPhZE07z-1LNwpWlfgJsbs8hSvysJ81J8nw=
FIuoG_4$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A surface trough extends from northwestern Colombia to the coast=20
at 06N77W and continues south-southwest to 04N78W. Another=20
surface trough extends from 01N105W to 03N117W, where latest
scatterometer data indicated the ITCZ begins and continues to=20
03N127W to 02N135W and to beyond 03N140W. No significant=20
convection is noted at the present time.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Surface ridging anchored by a 1026 mb high near 31N127W is=20
maintaining moderate to fresh northwest winds along the Baja=20
California offshore waters, with wave heights of 5-7 ft due
to a northwest swell, except for slightly higher wave heights
of 6-8 ft north of about 27N. Gentle to moderate northwest=20
winds are along the Gulf of California with 3 ft seas. Light to=20
gentle variable winds are elsewhere along and near the south
and southwestern SW Mexican offshore waters along with wave=20
heights of 3-5 ft due to a northwest swell.=20

As for the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will=20
prevail off Baja California through Thu as the ridge remains in
place the next couple of days. Northwest swell will begin to=20
move through the waters offshore Baja California Norte tonight=20
reaching the waters offshore Cabo San Lucas Thu and Thu night. A=20
gap wind event is forecast to begin Tue morning in the region of
Tehuantepec, with near gale-force north to northeast winds=20
continuing through Wed as high pressure builds southward over=20
eastern Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of=20
Papagayo along with wave heights in the range of 6-8 ft. Moderate=20
north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama along with=20
wave heights of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are=20
elsewhere with wave heights of 3-5 ft due to a south to southwest
swell.

As for the forecast, gentle winds will continue through most of=20
the forecast period, except for the Papagayo region where the=20
fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse through Wed.=20
Moderate northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama=20
through tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Please see the Special Features section for information regarding=20
an ongoing gale warning pertaining to a section of the far=20
western part of the area.

High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 31N127W, with a ridge=20
extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The=20
associated gradient between this ridge and relatively lower=20
pressure to its south continues to sustain moderate to fresh=20
northeast to east winds along with wave heights of 6-8 ft north=20
of the surface trough and ITCZ to near 22N and west of about=20
115W. Strong to gale-force northeast to east trade winds are=20
ongoing over the far western tropical waters as the ridge stays=20
nearly stationary, and while a surface trough moves westward=20
across the area through Wed. Wave heights with the strongest=20
winds are forecast in the 8-12 ft range. The Special Features=20
gale-force winds will diminish to strong northeast to east winds
from 08N to 14N west of 132W, with wave heights of 8-10 ft and=20
to fresh speeds on Wed, with wave heights of 8-10 ft in mixed
northeast and northwest swell. The aforementioned northwest=20
swell has just recently begun to enter the NW forecast waters,=20
with wave heights of 8-11 ft. This swell set is forecast to=20
eventually propagate southeastward through most of the region=20
going into Wed.

Divergence to the east of the Special Features mid to upper-=20
level trough continues to help sustain areas of moderate rain,=20
with embedded scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms from 05N to 19N between 128W-138W. This activity is=20
likely to change little through Wed as the trough remains about=20
stationary over that part of the area.

$$
Aguirre


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