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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220315054734.EC7351C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2022 05:47:34 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 150200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/CORRECTED/150200Z-151800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141951ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.6N 87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.1N 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION OVER A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 142230Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE
IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED ALONG A BROAD SPIRAL BAND
WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LLC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES 91B IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (26-27C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING
OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 91B WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WITH GFS AND NAVGEM
INDICATING INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN 72 TO 96
HOURS. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT LEVEL OF ORGANIZATIONAL IMPROVEMENT
SUGGESTS THIS MAY OCCUR MORE RAPIDLY THAN MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 14MAR22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BILLY) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.7S 98.9E, APPROXIMATELY 922 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60
KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 142100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANTS OF 19S (GOMBE) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3S
37.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 37.3E. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 142312Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES FLARING CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE PAST 6
TO 12 HOURS OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE REMNANTS OF GOMBE REMAIN IN A FAIR
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29C), AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
20KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CIRCULATION WILL TRACK BACK
OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, IF 19S REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY OFFSHORE IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW
FOR REDEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.1S 50.5E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141855Z GMI 89GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVING DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OFFSETTING MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SYMMETRIC. GLOBAL MODELS, NAMELY ECMWF, ARE INDICATING A SHORT LIVED
OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL
OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING AND GRAMMAR
MISTAKES.//
NNNN


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