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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220315094421.BC5541C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2022 09:44:21 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 150944
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Mar 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 03N105W to 02N117W, where it 
continues as the ITCZ to 02N125W to 03N134W and to beyond 
03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm 
north of the ITCZ between 132W-135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure over the offshore waters that is anchored by a 
1029 mb high near 30N128W is maintaining moderate to fresh 
northwest winds along the Baja California offshore waters, with 
wave heights of 5-7 ft due to a northwest swell, except for 
slightly higher wave heights of 6-8 ft north of about 27N. Gentle
to moderate northwest winds are along the Gulf of California 
with 3 ft seas. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere 
along and near the south and southwestern SW Mexican offshore 
waters along with wave heights of 3-5 ft due to a northwest 
swell. 

As for the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will 
prevail off Baja California through Thu as the ridge remains in
place the next couple of days. Northwest swell will begin to 
move through the waters offshore Baja California Norte today 
tonight reaching the waters offshore Cabo San Lucas Thu and Thu 
night. A gap wind event is forecast to begin by early this 
afternoon in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, with near gale-force
north to northeast winds continuing through Wed as high pressure
builds southward over eastern Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo along with wave heights in the range of 6-8 ft. Moderate 
north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama along with 
wave heights of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are 
elsewhere with wave heights of 3-5 ft due to a south to southwest
swell.

As for the forecast, gentle winds will continue through most of 
the forecast period, except for the Papagayo region where the 
fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse through Wed. 
Moderate northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama 
through tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1029 mb is centered near 30N128W, with a ridge 
extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
associated gradient between this ridge and relatively lower 
pressure to its south continues to sustain moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds along with wave heights of 5-8 ft north 
of the surface trough and ITCZ to near 20N and west of about 
115W. Strong to near gale-force northeast to east trade winds 
are over a section of the western part of the area that covers 
the waters from 05N to 10N between 137W-140W, with resultant 
wave heights of 8-12 ft. These conditions are being induced due 
to the gradient between a surface trough along a position from 
13N138W to 06N140W and high pressure to its north. By early this 
afternoon, the gradient will relax just enough allowing for the 
gale-force winds to diminish to strong speeds, with wave heights 
subsiding slightly. These winds will diminish further to fresh 
speeds on speeds on Wed, with wave heights of 8-10 ft in mixed 
northeast and northwest swell. The northwest swell component is 
from a large set of swell that recently entered the NW forecast 
waters, with wave heights of 8-11 ft. This swell set is forecast 
to propagate southeastward through most of the region going into 
Thu.

Divergence to the east of a large mid to upper-level trough 
over the far western part of of the area from 05N to 19N 
between 130W-141W continues to help sustain areas of moderate 
rain and moderate from 09N to 14N between 134W-138W, and from 
13N to 18N between 125W-134w. This activity is likely to change 
little through Wed as the trough remains about stationary over 
that part of the area.

$$
Aguirre


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