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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2022 12:27:41 +0000
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578 
AWIO20 FMEE 151225

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/03/15 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present west of 60oE and feeds a Monsoon Trough (MT) whose axis undulates between 13S and 15S between 50E and 60E. East of 70oE, the axis of the Near Equatorial Trough (NET) is located around 06oS.
Area of Disturbed weather GOMBE :

Position at 09 UTC: 18.1S / 37.6E.

Forward motion: North-Northwest at 7 kt

10-min maximum  winds: 25 kt (very locally 30 kt)

Estimated central pressure: 1004 hPa

The microwave images of the morning and the Ascat-B and C passes show that, despite an increase in convective activity compared to yesterday, the definition of the low-level circulation remains poor. The system has not significantly intensified since its return to the sea for nearly 24 hours. The current track will lead the system to return to land by tomorrow morning still at the level of the Zambezi province.

If the environmental conditions and the quality of the low-level circulation are not really favorable to a re-intensification of the system to the stage of a tropical storm, given the little time remaining, it remains that this system continues to present a significant rainfall threat for Mozambique:

Satellite rainfall estimate data show that accumulations in the range of 100 to 200 mm (locally more than 200 mm) have occurred over the Southern Malawi area and Zambezi Province over the past 3 days. With this new landfall on the same area, additional rainfall totals of 100 to 150 mm (locally 200 mm) are expected again over Zambezi Province by Friday evening. The rains will tend to reach the provinces located near the border with Zimbabwe at the end of the week, before subsiding this weekend.
The risk is now very low that this system becomes a tropical storm in the next 24 hours.

Near the North-East of Madagascar :

A weak low-pressure circulation is located at 09 UTC around 12.5oS and 50.7oE in the form of a low-level vortex almost devoid of deep convection. The ascending passes of this morning allow to estimate the winds at 15/20 kt with a central pressure at 1005 hPa. The current motion is at 2 kt in a general westerly direction. On a very slow track towards the South-West this system should make landfall over the North-East coast of Madagascar by tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening. A small shear constraint from the south-east and the presence of dry air in the middle troposphere still do not suggest come potential for further development into a tropical storm.

Additional rainfall totals in the order of 100 to 150 mm are possible over the coastal regions of northeast Madagascar between Diego-Suarez and Sambava.
There is no risk of a tropical storm forming within this area.

In the Australian zone:

Tropical storm Billy was located at 06 UTC around 16.9S and 97.3E (see bulletin IDW27600 produced by the BoM) with winds averaging 45 kt and an estimated central pressure of 992 hPa. with a general west-southwest movement, this system should enter our basin on Thursday. In an unfavorable environment, the most likely scenario is that a residual system is likely to cross 90E.
There is now a low risk of a moderate tropical storm entering the eastern part of the basin on Thursday.

Over the extreme northeast of the basin:

In a favorable context to low-level cyclonism in connection with the activity of MRG and Equatorial Rossby waves, a new cyclogenesis signal could appear over the extreme Northeast of the basin during the weekend within the NET.
There is a very low risk of formation of a new tropical storm over the extreme Northeast of the basin from Sunday

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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