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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220315133504.375721C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2022 13:35:04 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 151330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/151330Z-151800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150751ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.1N 86.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.3N 87.1E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LARGE, DISORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF DEEP
CONVECTION FALRING OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 151046Z
SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD, WEAKLY
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS GENERALLY EASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15MAR22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BILLY) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.0S 97.2E, APPROXIMATELY 291 NM SOUTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 150900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 37.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 37.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 195 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES RAPIDLY WEAKENING
CONVECTION WITH A THIN CANOPY OF CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS OBSCURING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151124Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS VERY ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. A 150619Z ASCAT-B
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PREDOMINANTLY 15-25 KNOT
WINDS EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AND FAIR EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR IS PROXIMITY TO LAND. ECMWF INITIALIZES THIS SYSTEM
BETTER THAN GFS AND MAINTAINS A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE
NEXT DAY THEN A SLOW DRIFT INLAND OVER MOZAMBIQUE BY TAU 48 AT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH. GFS IS NOT HANDLING THE SYSTEM WELL
AND SHOWS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.1S 50.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 50.6E, APPROXIMATELY 346
NM NORTH OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION. A 150945Z AMSR2
89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED, SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED LLCC. A 150617Z ASCAT-B IMAGE
REVEALS AN ELONGATED, WEAK CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. SST VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28C. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR THEN TRACK OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR BETWEEN TAU 24 TO TAU
36 WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREAS IN PARA. 1.B.(1) AND
PARA. 2.B.(2) TO LOW. UPDATED PARA. 2.A.(1) AND PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN


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