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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220315161620.280C31C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2022 16:16:20 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 151614
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Mar 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 02.5N103W to 02N116W, where it 
continues as the ITCZ to 02N123W to 03N134W and to beyond 
03N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S 
to 01.5N E of 94W to coastal Ecuador. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 06N between 121W-135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure NW of the region is anchored by a 1028 mb high 
near 30N129W, and extends a ridge SE across over the offshore
waters to 19N109W. The associated pressure gradient is 
maintaining moderate to fresh northwest winds along the Baja 
California offshore waters, with wave heights of 5-8 ft due to
mixed N and NW swell. Seas are highest across the outer waters N
of 25N. Gentle to moderate NNW winds prevail over the Gulf of 
California along with wave heights of 2-4 ft. Light to gentle 
variable winds are elsewhere along and near the south and 
southwestern SW Mexican offshore waters along with wave heights 
of 4-5 ft in NW swell. 

Moderate to fresh northerly winds will prevail off Baja 
California through Thu as the ridge remains in place the next 
couple of days. Northwest swell will begin to move through the 
waters offshore Baja California Norte today, reaching the waters
offshore Cabo San Lucas Thu and Thu night. A gap wind event is 
forecast to begin by early this afternoon in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region, with strong north winds. These winds will 
reach to near gale-force tonight and continue through early Wed. 
They will diminish to fresh speeds Wed afternoon and become west 
to northwest moderate winds Wed night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds prevail across the 
Papagayo region producing wave heights in the range of 6-8 ft. 
Moderate north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama along
with wave heights of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are 
elsewhere with wave heights of 3-5 ft due to a south to southwest
swell.

Gentle winds will continue through most of the forecast period, 
except for the Papagayo region where the fresh to strong winds 
will continue to pulse through Wed. Moderate northerly winds will
also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 30N129W, with a ridge 
extending southeastward to just beyond the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The associated gradient between this ridge and 
relatively lower pressure to its south continues to sustain 
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along with wave heights
of 6-9 ft north of the surface trough and ITCZ to near 20N and 
west of about 115W. Strong northeast to east trade winds are 
over a section of the western part of the area that covers the 
waters from 05N to 10N between 137W-140W, with resultant wave 
heights of 8-11 ft.These winds will diminish to fresh speeds on 
on Wed, with wave heights of 8-10 ft in mixed northeast and 
northwest swell. The northwest swell component is from a large 
swell that recently entered the NW forecast waters, and will 
propagate southeastward through most of the region going into 
Thu.

Divergence to the east of a large mid to upper-level trough 
over the far western part of of the area from 05N to 19N 
between 130W-141W continues to help sustain areas of moderate 
rain and moderate from 09N to 14N between 134W-138W, and from 
12.5N to 20N between 125W-138W. This activity is likely to 
change little through Wed as the trough remains about stationary 
over that part of the area.

$$
Stripling


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