Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220315214045.8566A1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2022 21:40:45 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1647380449-112669-17398"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1647380449-112669-17398
Content-Type: text/plain

AXPZ20 KNHC 152140
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Mar 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The ITCZ extends from 02N115W to 04N121W to 03N128W to 03N134W 
to beyond 03.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N to 08.5N E of 86W. Widely scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 03S to 01N E of 99W to coastal Ecuador, and within 120
nm N of ITCZ between 121W-134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure NW of the region is anchored by a 1030 mb high 
near 30N130W, and extends a ridge SE across over the offshore 
waters to 16N107W. The associated pressure gradient is 
producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds along the Baja
California Norte offshore waters, with wave heights of 6-9 ft 
in mixed N and NW swell. Seas are highest across the outer 
waters. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are seen elsewhere
offshore of Baja south of Punta Eugenia, where seas are 5 to 8 
ft. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate NNW winds 
prevail, with wave heights of 2-4 ft. Light to gentle variable 
winds are elsewhere along and near the south and southwestern SW 
Mexican offshore waters to Puerto Angel, where wave heights of 
4-5 ft prevail in NW swell. High pressure building southward
across eastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico has induced
strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec in 
recent hours. Seas there have built to 6 ft.

Moderate to fresh northerly winds will prevail off Baja 
California through Thu as the ridge remains in place the next 
couple of days. Northwest swell moving through the offshore
waters of Baja California Norte today will reaching the waters 
offshore of Cabo San Lucas late Wed and Wed night. Gap winds 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will increase to near 
gale-force tonight and extend offshore to 13N. Strong gap winds
will continue there through midday Wed before diminishing to 
fresh speeds Wed afternoon and then become west to northwest 
moderate winds Wed night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh northeast to east gap winds prevail across the Papagayo 
region producing wave heights in the range of 5-7 ft. Moderate 
north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama along with 
wave heights of 3-5 ft in new SW swell. Light to gentle variable
winds are elsewhere with wave heights of 3-5 ft due to the
arrival of small to moderate SW swell.

Gentle winds will continue through most of the forecast period, 
except for the Papagayo region where the fresh to strong winds 
will continue to pulse through Wed night. Moderate northerly 
winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1030 mb is centered near 30N130W, just ahead of
a dying cold front along 31N. The associated surface ridge 
extends southeastward to just SE of the Revillagigedo Islands. 
The associated gradient between this ridge and relatively lower 
pressure to its south continues to sustain moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds between the ITCZ and 24N and west of 
about 118W. Seas are 8-10 ft in NW swell across this area. 
Deep layered upper level low pressure just west of the area
between 05N and 20N had helped to induce a couple of surface 
troughs along the ITCZ during the past 24 hours, as well as
support moderate convection aloft between 15N-20N. However both
of the troughs and the convection has weakened considerably
today. 

Winds across this tradewind belt will diminish to fresh 
speeds on Wed, with wave heights of 8-10 ft persisting in mixed 
northeast and northwest swell. The northwest swell component is 
from a new pulse of large NW swell that recently entered the
northern forecast waters, and will propagate southeastward 
through most of the region going into Thu. Areas of moderate
convection along will occur intermittently between the ITCZ and
20N and to the W of 130W as the deep layered upper level low
persists just W of the discussion area.

$$
Stripling


------------=_1647380449-112669-17398
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1647380449-112669-17398--