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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Australia: Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Charlotte 
Message-ID: <20220321192101.10B4A1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2022 19:21:01 +0000
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AXAU01 APRF 211920
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1920 UTC 21/03/2022
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Charlotte
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 109.7E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (232 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Central Pressure: 979 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  22/0000: 16.6S 109.3E:     045 (085):  070  (130):  974
+12:  22/0600: 16.9S 109.1E:     060 (110):  070  (130):  974
+18:  22/1200: 17.3S 108.8E:     070 (130):  060  (110):  982
+24:  22/1800: 17.5S 108.5E:     080 (145):  055  (100):  985
+36:  23/0600: 18.1S 107.8E:     090 (170):  045  (085):  991
+48:  23/1800: 18.9S 107.2E:     110 (200):  040  (075):  994
+60:  24/0600: 20.0S 106.7E:     145 (265):  040  (075):  994
+72:  24/1800: 21.9S 106.6E:     195 (360):  035  (065):  998
+96:  25/1800: 26.7S 107.6E:     265 (495):  035  (065):  995
+120: 26/1800: 28.5S 108.9E:     360 (660):  040  (075):  988
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Charlotte is now a category 2 and intensifying. The system has
shown increased organisation and structure in the last 12 hours with deep
convection wrapping around the centre, picked up my microwave imagery. Animated
EIR imagery shows an eye developing in the last 6hours. 

Dvorak analysis of eye pattern with CMG surround and W eye temp, gives DT=5.5
and embedded pattern gives a DT=5.0. 24hr trend D+ gives MET=4.5. FT has been
constrained to 4.5. NOAA ADT [21S] has CI of 4.6. Intensity set at 65 knots
10-minute based on Dvorak.

The system is under the  15-20 knots northeasterly shear, increasing to the
south. SSTs are 29 degrees. Upper winds indicate good outflow to the south and
strong upper divergence. Charlotte is forecast to intensify further during the
day to high end category 3 system. As it moves south, the environment becomes
less favourable with increasing wind shear aided by a stationary upper low to
the southwest. Models indicate intrusion of dry as well. 

Charlotte is moving under the influence of a mid-level high to the southeast.
It is forecast to continue in the same direction before the steering influence
shifts to the stationary upper low from late Wednesday. The system is then
forecast to take a southerly track and also lose its tropical characteristics.
In the longer term, extra tropical transition to a sub-tropical system would
occur. There is uncertainty regarding the intensity and wind distribution of
the system as it moves towards the far southwest WA, but remaining well off the
mainland. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0130 UTC. 


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