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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-N:        Dems-rsmc Special Tropical Cyclones New Delhi Dated 21.03.2022 
Message-ID: <20220321213824.D44B21C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2022 21:38:24 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 212135
       TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
       DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 21.03.2022
       SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE
BAY OF
       BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT
2100 UTC OF
       21.03.2022 BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 21.03.2022.
       SUB: DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
AREAS OF
       SOUTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
       THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST BAY OF
       BENGAL, MOVED NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 13 KMPH DURING LAST
06 HOURS, AND
       LAY CENTERED AT 1800 UTC OF THE 21ST MARCH, OVER NORTH ANDAMAN
SEA AND
       ADJOINING AREAS OF EASTCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL,
NEAR LATITUDE
       14.0ON AND LONGITUDE 94.0OE, ABOUT 170 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MAYABUNDAR
       (ANDAMAN ISLANDS), 290 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR
(ANDAMAN ISLANDS),
       390 KM SOUTHWEST OF YANGON (MYANMAR) AND 500 KM SOUTH OF
THANDWE
       (MYANMAR).
                IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM
ANDAMAN
       ISLANDS, WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST AS A
DEPRESSION
       BETWEEN LATITUDE 16ON & 18ON AROUND AFTERNOON OF 22ND MARCH.
       FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
              DATE/TIME               POSITION         M AXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE    CATEGORY OF
                                       0          0
                 (UTC)            (LAT. N/ LONG. E)          WIND
SPEED (KMPH)         CYCLONIC

DISTURBANCE
            21.03.22/1800              14.0/94.0             55-65
GUSTING TO 75        DEEP DEPRESSION
            22.03.22/0000              15.1/94.0             50-60
GUSTING TO 70       DEEP DEPRESSION
            22.03.22/0600              15.9/94.1             45-55
GUSTING TO 65      DEPRESSION
            22.03.22/1200              16.7/94.4             40-50
GUSTING TO 60     DEPRESSION
       AS PER INSAT 3D IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS
CHARACTERISED AS T 2.0.
       ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE
TO VERY
       INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST BAY OF
       BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 13.0ON & 16.0ON AND LONGITUDE 92.0OE &
94.5OE AND
       ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS
AROUND MINUS
       93 OC.
       THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS.
       THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND
ADJOINING
       SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000 HPA.
THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER
COUNTRIES,. PLEASE VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY
SPECIFIC BULLETINS
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE
THE STORM SURGE OF 0.3M TO 0.5M OVER AND ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IS
LIKELY TO INUNDATE THE LOW LYING AREAS OF COASTAL MYANMAR.
REMARKS:
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 29-300C OVER ANDAMAN SEA, SOUTHEAST
AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (BOB). TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT
POTENTIAL IS
AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION BECOMING LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2
OVER
NORTH BOB. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX CURRENTLY LIES
IN PHASE 3
WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2
DAYS AND
MOVE TO PHASE 4 WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING MORE THAN 1.
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 150 X10-6 S-1 NEAR SYSTEM CENTRE WITH
VERTICAL
EXTENSION UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 20X10-5 S-1 TO
THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 10
X10-5 S-1
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICAL W IND SHEAR IS
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE WITH
DECREASING
TREND (BECOMING 10-15 KNOTS) ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHWARDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE
LYING TO
IT\U2019S NORTHEAST OVER MYANMAR & ADJOINING THAILAND. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
IS SEEN NEAR 170N.=

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