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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Disturbance 10 
Message-ID: <20220322011548.19B971C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 01:15:48 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 220028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/10/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10

2.A POSITION 2022/03/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 82.1 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/22 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 445 SW: 425 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/23 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/23 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 315 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/24 00 UTC: 13.1 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/24 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 335 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

72H: 2022/03/25 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 315 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/26 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2022/03/27 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 425 SW: 425 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0


DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS AT FIRST MAINLY
TAKING PLACE IN THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE, THEN, MORE RECENTLY, DURING
THE LAST 3 OR 4 HOURS, ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY AND
NORTH OF THE CENTER. MONDAY EVENINGS ASCAT DATA DID NOT SAMPLE THE
SYSTEM'S CENTER BUT DID SHOW WINDS LOCALLY REACHING 30/35KT UNDER
STORMY SQUALLS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS WHICH ARE RATHER ESTIMATED AROUND 25KT. WHILE
MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM MONDAY AROUND 12Z SHOWED A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION, SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT APPEARED ON THE 1957Z
AMSR2 AND THE 2243Z SSMIS, SHOWING BETTER CURVATURE OF CONVECTIVE
BANDS AROUND A BETTER-DEFINED CENTER AND PROBABLY THE BEGINNING OF A
CURVED BAND PATTERN. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN IMPROVEMENT ALLOWS US TO
ESTIMATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOW REACHED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATUS.

THE GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS TAKING PLACE UNTIL MID-WEEK
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS
WESTWARD AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY APPARENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN THIS CONTEXT,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW DOWN ITS WESTWARD PROGRESSION ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY, WHILE THE WEAKNESS IS MAINTAINED
TO THE SOUTH, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH BETWEEN
80TH AND 90TH WILL REINFORCE A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAKING THE
SYSTEM ACCELERATE ON A POLEWARD TRACK FROM FRIDAY. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
MAINLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHWARD TURN IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN, AS SHOWN BY STRONG
DISPERSION DISPLAYED BY GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DETERMINIST MODELS SUCH AS
GFS AND IFS, AND STAYS CLOSE TO THE MAJORITY OF EPS MEMBERS WHICH
SUGGEST A SOUTHWARD TURN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WEST OF 75E.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EVOLVING JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG (15-20 KT)
EASTERLY SHEAR. SOME NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING
TO MAINTAIN SOME DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR NEAR THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. IN THE COMING DAYS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY: THE SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE FROM TOMORROW EVENING ON
WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL (SST AT 29-30C). THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
TRACK WILL PROGRESSIVELY PLACE THE SYSTEM IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. FINALLY,
THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORED AT FIRST ON THE EQUATORIAL
SIDE AND THEN FROM THURSDAY BOTH ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES
OF THE SYSTEM. IN THIS CONTEXT, A SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
FIRST 24 HOURS THEN A REGULAR OR EVEN SUSTAINED ONE IS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS PROCESS OF INTENSIFICATION IS
TEMPORARILY STOPPED AT THE TIME OF THE CHANGE OF TRACK BECAUSE OF THE
IMPORTANT SLOWING DOWN OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS MOMENT. THE SYSTEM,
EXPECTED TO BE MATURE AND POWERFUL, COULD BE AFFECTED BY SEA WATER
THAT IT HAS ITSELF COOLED. OTHER PROCESSES SUCH AS THE OCCURRENCE OF
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD ALSO TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING GOOD AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR
COULD GRADUALLY START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

IN THE CURRENT SCENARIO, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAR FROM ANY
INHABITED LAND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY DISPLAYED ON ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS, IT IS NOT EXCLUDED THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD MAKE ITS TURN
MORE TO THE WEST BY PASSING SIGNIFICANTLY CLOSER TO THE ISLAND OF
RODRIGUES. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF SUCH A SCENARIO
APPEARS VERY LOW AT THE MOMENT.

THE SYSTEM'S CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.=

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