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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Australia: Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Charlotte 
Message-ID: <20220322013021.E83881C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 01:30:21 +0000
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AXAU01 APRF 220130
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0130 UTC 22/03/2022
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Charlotte
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.6S
Longitude: 109.4E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (225 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots (230 km/h)
Central Pressure: 956 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  22/0600: 16.8S 109.0E:     035 (065):  090  (165):  956
+12:  22/1200: 17.1S 108.7E:     050 (090):  080  (150):  960
+18:  22/1800: 17.2S 108.4E:     060 (115):  075  (140):  965
+24:  23/0000: 17.4S 108.1E:     070 (130):  065  (120):  974
+36:  23/1200: 18.0S 107.5E:     085 (160):  050  (095):  987
+48:  24/0000: 18.6S 107.0E:     115 (210):  040  (075):  994
+60:  24/1200: 19.7S 106.8E:     155 (290):  040  (075):  994
+72:  25/0000: 22.0S 107.0E:     210 (390):  035  (065):  998
+96:  26/0000: 27.0S 109.9E:     260 (485):  040  (070):  994
+120: 27/0000: 28.5S 110.8E:     340 (630):  040  (075):  987
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Charlotte has intensified to category 4 having an eye
developed overnight with significant lightning occurring about the inner core
of the circulation. 

Intensity estimated at 90 kn based on Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=5.5  eye pattern
with W surround and B or LG surround giving DT=5.5-6.0 over past 4 hours;
strong developing 24hr trend and with pattern adjustment for MET=5.0. NOAA ADT
[21S] has CI of 4.8 but recent raw DT=6.4 when using eye pattern.  

The system has developed rapidly in the past 30 hours benefitting from SSTs of
29C and strong poleward outflow associated with an upper level trough to the
southwest. Shear is ~15kn northeasterly with some restricted outflow to the
north. 

Charlotte is likely to have peaked and while only moving slowly in the next 24
hours, the environment becomes less favourable with increasing wind shear and
dry air intruding from the north. While model guidance has underestimated the
intensity of Charlotte but there is consistency in a rapid weakening trend from
+12 to +48h.  
 
Charlotte is moving slowly under the influence of a mid-level high to the
southeast which should persist before the steering influence shifts to be more
southerly owing to the stationary upper trough by Thursday. The system is then
forecast to gradually lose its tropical characteristics and become sub-tropical
as it tracks south off the west coast later in the week. Gales are forecast to
persist south of the centre, or even be enhanced. The potential scenario of the
system moving closer to the lower west coast and causing wind and rain impacts
for the weekend will continue to be closely examined in coming days. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0730 UTC. 


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