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Subject: Indian-N: 
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Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 03:00:14 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 220300
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 22.03.2022

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL  AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0230 UTC
 OF 22.03.2022 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 22.03.2022.

SUB: DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF
EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF
EASTCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL, MOVED NORTHWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF 16 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000
HOURS UTC OF TODAY, THE 22ND MARCH, OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND
ADJOINING AREAS OF EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, NEAR LATITUDE 14.9ON
AND LONGITUDE 94.1OE, ABOUT 250 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAYABUNDAR
(43309) (ANDAMAN ISLANDS), 390 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR
(43333) (ANDAMAN ISLANDS), 300 KM SOUTHWEST OF YANGON(48097)
(MYANMAR) AND 400 KM SOUTH OF THANDWE(48080) (MYANMAR).
IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM ANDAMAN
ISLANDS, WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST AS A DEEP
DEPRESSION BETWEEN LATITUDE 16ON & 18ON AROUND 0800 TO 0900 UTC OF
22ND MARCH.


FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
    DATE/TIME        POSITION      M AXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
CATEGORY OF
                      0         0
       (UTC)     (LAT. N/ LONG. E)       WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CYCLONIC

DISTURBANCE
   22.03.22/0000      14.9/94.1         55-65 GUSTING TO 75   DEEP
DEPRESSION
   22.03.22/0600      15.8/94.2         50-60 GUSTING TO 70   DEEP
DEPRESSION
   22.03.22/1200      16.7/94.4         45-55 GUSTING TO 65
DEPRESSION


AS PER INSAT 3D IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERISED
AS T 2.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND
ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 13.0ON & 17.0ON AND
LONGITUDE 90.0OE & 95.0OE AND ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS. MINIMUM
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS AROUND MINUS 93 OC.


THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO
40 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER ANDAMAN
SEA AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.


STORM SURGE GUIDANCE

THE STORM SURGE OF 0.3M TO 0.5M OVER AND ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE IS LIKELY TO INUNDATE THE LOW LYING AREAS OF COASTAL MYANMAR.

REMARKS:

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 29-300C OVER ANDAMAN SEA,
SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (BOB). TROPICAL
CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION
BECOMING LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2 OVER NORTH BOB. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX CURRENTLY LIES IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE
MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2 DAYS AND
MOVE TO PHASE 4 WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING MORE THAN 1.

LOW LEVEL VORTICITY HAS REDUCED FROM 150 X10-6 S-1 IN LAST 6 HOURS

AND NOW IS AROUND 75 X10-6 S-1 NEAR SYSTEM CENTRE WITH VERTICAL
EXTENSION UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS ALSO
REDUCED AND NOW IT IS 05X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 05 X10-5 S-1 TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE WITH
DECREASING TREND (BECOMING 10-15 KNOTS) ALONG THE EXPECTED
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHWARDS ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE LYING TO IT\U2019S NORTHEAST OVER
 MYANMAR & ADJOINING THAILAND. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS SEEN
NEAR 170N.=

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