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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (invest 91b) Cancellation// 
Message-ID: <20220322032922.B4E821C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 03:29:22 +0000
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WTIO21 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91B) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210251Z MAR 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 210300)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 94.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 94.7E, APPROXIMATELY 128
NM SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, LANDFALL IN
MYANMAR IS IMMINENT, SO THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT IS
CLOSING. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91B WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER MYANMAR AND DISSIPATE. OF NOTE,
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT 91B MAY BRIEFLY CROSS BACK OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND UNDERGOING MINOR REORGANIZATION BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER LAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.
THIS CANCELS REF A.//
NNNN


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