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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220322033132.0FDE61C0081@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 03:31:32 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 220330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/220330Z-221800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220251ZMAR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 94.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 94.7E, APPROXIMATELY 128
NM SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, LANDFALL IN
MYANMAR IS IMMINENT, SO THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT IS
CLOSING. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91B WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER MYANMAR AND DISSIPATE. OF NOTE,
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT 91B MAY BRIEFLY CROSS BACK OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND UNDERGOING MINOR REORGANIZATION BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER LAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. SEE REF A (WTIO21
PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22MAR22 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (CHARLOTTE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 109.3E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
220300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 84.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 81.7E, APPROXIMATELY 596
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED EIR AND A 212245Z SSMIS 91GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT MARGINALLY IMPROVED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND
FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) VWS,
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT INVEST 94S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN


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