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Subject: Indian-N: 
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Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 03:56:56 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 220350
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 22.03.2022

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL  AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS
ISSUED AT 0330 UTC OF 22.03.2022 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 22.03.2022.

SUB: DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF
EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF
EASTCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL, MOVED NORTHWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF 16 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000
HOURS UTC OF TODAY, THE 22ND MARCH, OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND
ADJOINING AREAS OF EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, NEAR LATITUDE 14.9ON
AND LONGITUDE 94.1OE, ABOUT 250 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAYABUNDAR
(43309) (ANDAMAN ISLANDS), 390 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR
(43333) (ANDAMAN ISLANDS), 300 KM SOUTHWEST OF YANGON(48097)
(MYANMAR) AND 400 KM SOUTH OF THANDWE(48080) (MYANMAR).

IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM ANDAMAN
ISLANDS, WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST AS A DEEP
DEPRESSION BETWEEN LATITUDE 16ON & 18ON AROUND 0800 TO 0900 UTC OF
22ND MARCH.


FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
    DATE/TIME        POSITION      M AXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
CATEGORY OF
                      0         0
       (UTC)     (LAT. N/ LONG. E)       WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CYCLONIC

DISTURBANCE
   22.03.22/0000      14.9/94.1         55-65 GUSTING TO 75   DEEP
DEPRESSION
   22.03.22/0600      15.8/94.2         50-60 GUSTING TO 70   DEEP
DEPRESSION
   22.03.22/1200      16.7/94.4         45-55 GUSTING TO 65
DEPRESSION


AS PER INSAT 3D IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERISED AS
T 2.0.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY
OF BENGAL
BETWEEN LATITUDE 13.0ON & 17.0ON AND LONGITUDE 90.0OE & 95.0OE AND
ANDAMAN &
NICOBAR ISLANDS. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS AROUND MINUS 93 OC.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS.
THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND
ADJOINING SOUTHEAST
BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.

STORM SURGE GUIDANCE

THE STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 0.4 M OVER AND ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
IS LIKELY TO
INUNDATE THE LOW LYING AREAS OF COASTAL MYANMAR.

REMARKS

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 29-300C OVER ANDAMAN SEA, SOUTHEAST
AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (BOB). TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT
POTENTIAL IS
AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION BECOMING LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2
OVER NORTH
BOB. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX CURRENTLY LIES IN
PHASE 3 WITH
AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2 DAYS
AND MOVE TO
PHASE 4 WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING MORE THAN 1.
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY HAS REDUCED FROM 150 X10-6 S-1 IN LAST 6 HOURS
AND NOW IS
AROUND 75 X10-6 S-1 NEAR SYSTEM CENTRE WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO
500 HPA LEVEL.
 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS ALSO REDUCED AND NOW IT IS 05X10-5 S-1 TO
THE NORTHEAST
 OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 05 X10-5 S-1
TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE
TO HIGH
(20-25 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE WITH DECREASING TREND
(BECOMING 10-15 KNOTS) ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHWARDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE
LYING TO IT\U2019S NORTHEAST OVER MYANMAR & ADJOINING THAILAND. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS SEEN NEAR 170N.


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