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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-N:       Tropical Weather Outlook 
Message-ID: <20220322041451.2FBC31C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 04:14:50 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 220412

      TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
                   DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI
DATED 22.03.2022
       SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE
BAY OF
       BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT
0330 UTC OF
       22.03.2022 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 22.03.2022.
       SUB: DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
AREAS OF
       EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
              THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND
ADJOINING AREAS OF
       EASTCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL, MOVED NORTHWARDS WITH
A SPEED
       OF 16 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000
HOURS UTC OF TODAY,
       THE 22ND MARCH, OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF
EASTCENTRAL
       BAY OF BENGAL, NEAR LATITUDE 14.9ON AND LONGITUDE 94.1OE,
ABOUT 250 KM NORTH-
       NORTHEAST OF MAYABUNDAR(43309) (ANDAMAN ISLANDS), 390 KM
NORTH-NORTHEAST
       OF PORT BLAIR(43333) (ANDAMAN ISLANDS), 300 KM SOUTHWEST OF
YANGON(48097)
       (MYANMAR) AND 400 KM SOUTH OF THANDWE(48080) (MYANMAR).
                IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM
ANDAMAN
       ISLANDS, WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST AS A DEEP
DEPRESSION
       BETWEEN LATITUDE 16ON & 18ON AROUND 0800 TO 0900 UTC OF 22ND
MARCH.
       FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
              DATE/TIME               POSITION         M AXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE                         CATEGORY OF
                                       0          0
                 (UTC)            (LAT. N/ LONG. E)          WIND
SPEED (KMPH)                              CYCLONIC

DISTURBANCE
            22.03.22/0000              14.9/94.1             55-65
GUSTING TO 75                      DEEP DEPRESSION
            22.03.22/0600              15.8/94.2             50-60
GUSTING TO 70                      DEEP DEPRESSION
            22.03.22/1200              16.7/94.4             45-55
GUSTING TO 65                          DEPRESSION
       AS PER INSAT 3D IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS
CHARACTERISED AS T 2.0.
       ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE
TO VERY
       INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL
       BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 13.0ON & 17.0ON AND LONGITUDE
90.0OE & 95.0OE AND
       ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS
AROUND MINUS
       93 OC.
       THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS.
       THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND
ADJOINING
       SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002 HPA.
       STORM SURGE GUIDANCE
       THE PEAK STORM SURGE OF 0.3 M TO 0.5 M OVER AND ABOVE THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
       IS LIKELY TO INUNDATE THE LOW LYING AREAS OF COASTAL MYANMAR.


THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER
COUNTRIES,. PLEASE VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY
SPECIFIC BULLETINS
REMARKS:
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 29-300C OVER ANDAMAN SEA, SOUTHEAST
AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (BOB). TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT
POTENTIAL IS
AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION BECOMING LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2
OVER
NORTH BOB. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX CURRENTLY LIES
IN PHASE 3
WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2
DAYS AND
MOVE TO PHASE 4 WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING MORE THAN 1.
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY HAS REDUCED FROM 150 X10-6 S-1 IN LAST 6 HOURS
AND NOW IS
AROUND 75 X10-6 S-1 NEAR SYSTEM CENTRE WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO
500 HPA
LEVEL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS ALSO REDUCED AND NOW IT IS 05X10-5
S-1 TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND
05 X10-
5
  S-1 TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE WITH
DECREASING
TREND (BECOMING 10-15 KNOTS) ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHWARDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE
LYING TO
IT\U2019S NORTHEAST OVER MYANMAR & ADJOINING THAILAND. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
IS SEEN NEAR 170N.
.=

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