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Subject: Indian-N: 
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Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 06:14:40 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 220609
DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 22.03.2022


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL  AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS
ISSUED AT 0540 UTC OF 22.03.2022 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 22.03.2022.


SUB: DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF
EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL


THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF
EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF
20 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300 HOURS UTC OF
TODAY, THE 22ND MARCH, OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE 15.2ON
AND LONGITUDE 94.2OE, ABOUT 290 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAYABUNDAR
(43309) (ANDAMAN ISLANDS), 420 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR
(ANDAMAN ISLANDS) (43333), 270 KM SOUTHWEST OF YANGON (48097)
(MYANMAR) AND 360 KM SOUTH OF THANDWE (48080) (MYANMAR).

  IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM ANDAMAN
ISLANDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST AS A DEEP DEPRESSION BETWEEN
LATITUDE 16ON & 18ON AROUND 0800 TO 0900 UTC OF 22ND MARCH.


FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

DATE/TIME               POSITION         M AXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
CATEGORY OF
                       0          0
 (UTC)            (LAT. N/ LONG. E)          WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CYCLONIC

DISTURBANCE
22.03.22/0300      15.2/94.2             55-65 GUSTING TO 75
DEEP DEPRESSION
22.03.22/0600      15.8/94.2             50-60 GUSTING TO 70
DEEP DEPRESSION
22.03.22/1200      16.7/94.4             45-55 GUSTING TO 65
DEPRESSION

DEPRESSION


AS PER INSAT 3D IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERISED
AS T 2.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 13.5ON & 17.0ON
 AND LONGITUDE 91.0OE & 95.0OE AND AND SOUTH MYANMAR COAST & ARAKAN
COAST. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS AROUND MINUS 93 OC.SYSTEM
MAINTAINED CLOUDS STRUCTURE DURING LAST 03 HRS.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO
40 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER ANDAMAN SEA
AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.


STORM SURGE GUIDANCE


THE PEAK STORM SURGE OF 0.3 M TO 0.5 M OVER AND ABOVE THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS LIKELY TO INUNDATE THE LOW LYING AREAS OF
COASTAL MYANMAR(MAP ENCLOSED).


REMARKS:


SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA
AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) BECOMING 26-280C OVER
NORTHEAST BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80
KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION BECOMING LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2 OVER NORTH
BOB.

LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN LAST 6 HOURS REMAINS AROUND 75 X10-6 S-1
NEAR SYSTEM CENTRE WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 15X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 05 X10-5 S-1 TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE WITH
DECREASING TREND (BECOMING 10-15 KNOTS) ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHWARDS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE LYING TO IT\U2019S NORTHEAST OVER MYANMAR
& ADJOINING THAILAND. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS SEEN NEAR 170N.=

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