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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Australia: Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Charlotte 
Message-ID: <20220322072429.324B51C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 07:24:29 +0000
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AXAU01 APRF 220724
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0724 UTC 22/03/2022
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Charlotte
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.1S
Longitude: 109.0E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (222 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots (230 km/h)
Central Pressure: 957 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (15 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  22/1200: 17.3S 108.7E:     035 (065):  090  (165):  956
+12:  22/1800: 17.5S 108.4E:     050 (095):  080  (150):  969
+18:  23/0000: 17.7S 108.1E:     060 (115):  070  (130):  977
+24:  23/0600: 18.0S 107.7E:     070 (135):  065  (120):  980
+36:  23/1800: 18.5S 107.1E:     085 (155):  050  (095):  990
+48:  24/0600: 19.4S 106.5E:     110 (205):  040  (075):  994
+60:  24/1800: 21.2S 106.5E:     165 (305):  040  (070):  996
+72:  25/0600: 23.8S 107.4E:     210 (390):  035  (065):  998
+96:  26/0600: 28.1S 111.1E:     280 (520):  040  (075):  992
+120: 27/0600: 27.1S 111.2E:     380 (710):  040  (075):  988
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical cyclone Charlotte has rapidly intensified to category 4 with
ongoing lightning about the inner core of the circulation but is expected to
weaken rapidly on Wednesday. 

Intensity estimated at 90 kn based on Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=5.5  eye pattern
with W surround and B or LG eye surrounded by CMG giving DT=5.0-6.0 over past 7
hours; strong developing 24hr trend and with pattern adjustment for MET=5.0.
NOAA ADT [21S] has CI of 4.8 but has largely failed to identify an eye pattern
(those eye patterns having raw DT~6.4).  

The rapid intensification has been a function of SSTs of 29C and strong
poleward outflow associated with an upper level low to the southwest. Shear is
~15kn northeasterly with some restricted outflow to the north. 

Most models have significantly underestimated the intensity of the system sand
indicate weakening should now be occurring. While Charlotte may well have
peaked peaked in intensity, it may remain a severe tropical cyclone much longer
than guidance indicates. That being said, the environment does becomes less
favourable with increasing wind shear and dry air intruding from the north and
hence weakening should be pronounced during Wednesday. Weakening below TC
intensity is forecast late Thursday (+60h), again much later than guidance
indicates.    
  
Charlotte is moving slowly under the influence of a mid-level high to the
southeast which should persist before the steering influence shifts to be more
southerly owing to the stationary upper trough by Thursday. The system is then
forecast to gradually lose its tropical characteristics and become sub-tropical
as it tracks to the south then southeast off the west coast later in the week.
Gales are forecast to persist south of the centre, or even be enhanced. The
system may stall off the west coast on the weekend but the potential scenario
of the system moving close to the lower west coast and causing wind and rain
impacts for the weekend will continue to be closely examined in coming days. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1330 UTC. 


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