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Subject: Indian-N: 
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Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 08:09:27 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 160700
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 16.03.2022

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
16.03.2022 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 16.03.2022.

BAY OF BENGAL:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMED OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND
ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) IN THE EVENING OF 15TH MARCH.
 IT LAY OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AT 0300 UTC OF
TODAY, THE 16TH MARCH, 2022. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS
 AND BECOME A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST BOB AND
ADJOINING SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AROUND 0000 UTC OF 19TH MARCH.
THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS INITIALLY
ALONG & OFF ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS, INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION
AROUND 0000 UTC OF 20TH MARCH AND INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AROUND 21ST
MARCH. IT WOULD THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 22ND
MARCH. THEREAFTER, IT WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND REACH NEAR
BANGLADESH AND ADJOINING NORTH MYANMAR COAST AROUND 0000 UTC OF 23RD
MARCH

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND ADJOINING
CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BOB OVER AREA BETWEEN LATITUDE 2.5N & 9.0N
AND LONGITUDE 82.0E & 89.0E IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE AREA.
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS - 93OC.


 PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT
120 HRS:

24 HOURS     24-48 HOURS   48-72 HOURS  72-96 HOURS  96-120 HOURS
      NIL       NIL          NIL         LOW          MODERATE

ARABIAN SEA:
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION
OVER COMORIN AREA.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS:
     24 HOURS     24-48 HOURS    48-72 HOURS    72-96 HOURS   96-120
HOURS
       NIL            NIL            NIL            NIL        NIL


REMARKS:

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 29-300C OVER SOUTHEAST AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (BOB). TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT
POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION BECOMING LESS
THAN 50 KJ/CM2 OVER NORTH BOB. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO)
 CURRENTLY LIES IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL
CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 3 DAYS AND MOVE TO PHASE 4 WITH
AMPLITUDE REMAINING MORE THAN 1 THEREAFTER. THE PHASE OF MJO IS
CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE BOB DURING NEXT 7 DAYS.
 FEEBLE WESTERLIES (1-3 MPS) AND EQUATORIAL ROSSBY WAVES ARE LIKELY
 TO PREVAIL OVER SOUTH BOB DURING NEXT 1 WEEK.

LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS 50 X10-6 S-1 AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE.
VERTICALLY IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS 10 X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE AND
20 X10-5 S-1 TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 30 X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM
CENTRE. A LARGE ZONE OF POSITIVE DIVERGENCE 05-20 X10-5 S-1 IS
ALSO PREVAILING OVER SOUTHEAST BOB. WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE WITH DECREASING TREND (BECOMING
05-10 KNOTS) OVER SOUTH AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BOB.

NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE
INDICATING LIKELIHOOD OF FORMATION OF DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST
BOB & ADJOINING SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA BY 0000 UTC OF 20TH MARCH WITH
SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AROUND 21ST MARCH.
HOWEVER, THERE IS VARIATION AMONG THESE MODELS W.R.T. PEAK INTENSITY
WITH IMD GFS INDICATING HIGHER INTENSITY AND ECMWF INDICATING
INTENSIFICATION UPTO MARGINAL CYCLONIC STORM ONLY. THERE IS GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG THESE MODELS W.R.T. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM TOWARDS THE
BANGLADESH & ADJOINING MYANMAR COAST.

IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BOB IS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS
 AND BECOME A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA ON 19TH. THEREAFTER,
IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS INITIALLY ALONG & OFF
ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION BY 0000
UTC OF 20TH & INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AROUND 21ST MARCH. IT WOULD
THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 22ND MARCH,
GRADUALLY RECURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND REACH NEAR BANGLADESH
AND ADJOINING NORTH MYANMAR COAST ON 23RD MARCH.


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