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Subject: Indian-N:                    Dems-rsmc Special Tropical Cyclones New Delhi Dated 22.03.2022 
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Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 09:46:18 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 220935
               TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
                   DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 22.03.2022
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF
22.03.2022 BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 22.03.2022.
SUB: DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF
EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, CLOSE TO MYANMAR COAST.
THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF
EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 16
KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 22ND
MARCH, OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE 15.8°N AND LONGITUDE 94.2°E CLOSE
TO MYANMAR COAST, ABOUT 350 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAYABUNDAR (43309)
(ANDAMAN ISLANDS), 490 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR(43333) (ANDAMAN
ISLANDS), 240 KM, W EST-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON 48097) (MYANMAR) AND 300 KM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THANDWE (48080) (MYANMAR).
IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHW ARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR
COAST WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS AS A DEEP DEPRESSION BETWEEN LATITUDE 16°N &
18°N.

    FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
 
 DATE/TIME(UTC)            POSITION      MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE    CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
                      (LAT. N0/ LONG.E0)   WIND SPEED (KMPH)         
                                                                    
                                                                                                          DISTURBANCE
22.03.22/0600            15.8/94.2          50-60 GUSTING TO 70           DEEP DEPRESSION
22.03.22/1200            16.7/94.4          45-55 GUSTING TO 65            DEPRESSION
22.03.22/1800            17.6/94.8          40-50 GUSTING TO 60            DEPRESSION

AS PER INSAT 3D IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERISED AS T 2.0.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL
BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 13.5°N & 17.0°N AND LONGITUDE 91.0°E & 95.0°E AND
AND SOUTH MYANMAR COAST & ARAKAN COAST. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS
AROUND MINUS 93 °C.SYSTEM MAINTAINED CLOUDS STRUCTURE DURING LAST 03 HRS.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.
THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
 SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.
 STORM SURGE GUIDANCE
 THE PEAK STORM SURGE OF 0.3 M TO 0.5 M OVER AND ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
 IS LIKELY TO INUNDATE THE LOW LYING AREAS OF COASTAL MYANMAR(MAP ENCLOSED).

REMARKS:
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND
 ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) BECOMING 26-280C OVER NORTHEAST
 BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME
 REGION BECOMING LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2 OVER NORTH BOB.
 LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN LAST 6 HOURS REMAINS AROUND 75 X10-6 S-1 NEAR SYSTEM
 CENTRE WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
 20X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
 AROUND 10 X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICAL
 WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE WITH
 DECREASING TREND (BECOMING 10-15 KNOTS) ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE
 SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHWARDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
 ANTICYCLONE LYING TO IT'S NORTHEAST OVER MYANMAR & ADJOINING THAILAND. UPPER
 TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS SEEN NEAR 170N.
       .
                                                                                               

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