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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 11:24:47 +0000
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670 
AWIO20 FMEE 221115

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/03/22 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warnings WTIO20 003/10 and WTIO30 003/10 about the Tropical Disturbance no 10-20212022 issued at 06UTC and next.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin is currently experiencing a Near Equatorial Trough pattern (NET) between 55oE and 77oE, undulating between 5oS and 11oS.

On the extreme East of the basin, nestled within this NET, a tropical low system is currently monitored by Reunion RSMC and is the subject of regular bulletins. The convective activity is mainly concentrated around this weak low in the low leve convergence, located on the northwestern and southern edge of this NET, as well as in the low level convergence of the trade winds north of the Mascarene Islands.

Over the extreme Northeast of the basin:

Tropical disturbance no 10-20212022 :

Position at 09UTC : 12.0oS / 80.5oE

Movement : West-southwest 09kt

Maximum wind average over 10 min : 25kt

Estimated pressure at the center : 1002 hPa

For more information on this system, refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 which will be issued this day from 12UTC.

Over the next 5 days, the risk for the development of a moderate tropical storm over the eastern part of the basin remains high from Wednesday.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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